Few Russians Trust Prigozhin, Many Support His Opinions

The leader of Russian mercenary outfit Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is presumed dead after a plane crash yesterday. Survey data shows that after his attempted mutiny in June, Prigozhin was not a trusted person in Russia - at least based on what people are daring to tell pollsters in the country where opinion is tightly controlled. However, almost half of respondents told researchers they thought Prigozhin's gripe with the Russian defense ministry - he accused its leadership of incompetence, corruption and an undercounting of Russia's war dead - was justified. Only 30 percent said it wasn't.

When asked what other people thought about Prigozhin in the survey carried out in late June and early July by Levada Center, 26 percent said that Russians supported him - compared to 22 percent who said this about themselves. Levada is discussing the topic of surveys in Russia here and here. As part of the same survey, 21 percent said Prigozhin acted out of self-interest in the mutiny, 19 percent said his well-founded claims about the country's military leadership were motivating him, while 17 percent said there was a conflict or a misunderstanding between the two actors.

Wagner fighters have been involved in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the group has also been active militarily, politically and economically in African countries. Despite being a long-time confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin and owning food catering businesses that routinely gain huge government contracts, Prigozhin had nevertheless been quite vocal about his discontent in the cooperation with Russian military forces in Ukraine, accusing them of cutting off his supply of ammunition. He had ranted about this openly, for example of on his Telegram channel. As the feud continued and the defense ministry sought to bring Wagner Group fighters under their control with Putin's support, Prigozhin started his armed convoy to Moscow. He ultimately called off the assault when a deal was struck with the help of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who was also willing to welcome Wagner Group as they moved their headquarter to his country. In the weeks after the agreement, the dust settled around Prigozhin, with observers pointing out his catering businesses were still receiving new contracts. Now the plane crash of unknown cause raises doubts about his peace deal with Russia authorities.