Gold Returns Head For Strongest Year Since 1979

Annual gold returns are headed for their strongest year since 1979 as the price of the precious metal has rallied to more than $4,000 per ounce. This means that as of the end of October, the price of gold has risen by more than 50 percent opposite 2024's closing price. The last time it appreciated this quickly was in 1979 amid a global oil crisis, when it jumped more than 130 percent. In 2024, gold returns already stood at an annual 27 percent, comparable to results before and in the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2007, 2009 and 2010. Amid the 1973 oil crisis, returns rose by 73 percent, while they were up by around 24 percent in 2020 as well as in 2002 (dotcom bubble) and 1987 (Black Monday stock market crash).

While gold has benefited from a weaker dollar and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank once again cutting interest rates after having raised them extremely quickly in 2022 and 2023, it is clear that it is also seen as a safe-haven asset that investors flock to in times of uncertainty. While 2024 and 2025 lack a definitive single global crisis, the current trend around gold can be seen in the context of an acculumation of disruptive and ongoing events like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, fears of more upheaval amid global bloc building and a strengthening of authoritharianism as well as the ailing global economy further weakened by protectionism, with upset about the economic and political status quo having begun to boil over in some countries.

Analyst also said they had seen increased buying from reserve banks in developing countries driving up the gold price. Forecasts for 2026 show the gold price averaging above $4,000 per ounce, while sector representative said they expect the precious metal to rise to almost the $5,000 mark as well next year. While annual return rates do not take into account the ups and downs of the gold price that also happened over the past decades, Investing.com finds that gold averaged an annual return of 8 percent over the course of the past 50 years, above U.S. inflation of around 4 percent.