What Are the Odds of Having a White Christmas?

The magic of a white Christmas - snowflakes dusting city streets and children sledding under twinkling lights - is firmly rooted in the collective imagination, whether in Northern America or Europe. But what are the actual chances of having a white Christmas? According to meteorological service data published by various media reports, there is a significant decline in the likelihood of waking up to snow on December 25 around the world. Due to climate change over the last decades and the tendency for winter precipitation to occur more often in the form of rain, some cities in the Northern Hemisphere are now experiencing white Christmases about half as often as they did in the mid-20th century.

In North America, where a white Christmas is defined as at least 2 cm (1 inch) of snow cover, Montreal is known to be a winter wonderland, with snow recorded 79 percent of the time on December 25 between 1955 and 1989. Nowadays, the largest city in the province of Quebec sees snow the same day around 68 percent of the time (1990-2024), a drop of 15 percentage points. A little further south, in the United States, Chicagoans could once expect a snowy Christmas nearly one in two years (47 percent in 1955-1989), but now just face a 35 percent chance (1990-2024), while New Yorkers' odds have fallen from around 18 percent to 12 percent over the same period (-33 percent).

Across the Atlantic, data collected in Germany reveals a similar story. Munich, famed for its fairy-tale Christmas markets dusted in snow, has seen its white Christmas probability (defined in Europe as at least 1 cm of snow cover) decrease from 47 percent in 1955-1989 to around 20 percent since 1990, a drop of more than 50 percent. Berlin, less of a snow guarantee, has gone on its side from over a one-in-four chance (29 percent) to just under one-in-five (18 percent), with the last white Christmas dating back to 2010.