U.S. Trade Tariffs Show High Volatility

Over the past year, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly announced steep new tariffs on trading partners around the world, driving up the average tariff rate on goods imported into the United States. As the following infographic based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows, the rate temporarily climbed to 23.5 percent in May 2025. Part of the sharp volatility reflects the fact that the figures include not only tariffs already in force, but also announced measures that had not yet taken effect, meaning the trend line also mirrors the frequent shifts in U.S. trade policy.

More recently, the effective tariff rate has eased slightly to 18.5 percent, according to data published alongside the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). The IMF notes that while trade tensions have continued to ease overall, they are still prone to flaring up intermittently. In the dispute between the United States and China over export controls on semiconductors and rare earths, for instance, the two sides reached an agreement to lower bilateral tariffs through November 2026 and suspend export controls. In addition, U.S. authorities have lifted tariffs on certain agricultural products for all countries, offsetting higher tariffs applied in other sectors. As a result, the overall U.S. effective tariff rate remains broadly in line with the level projected in the October 2025 WEO. The IMF cautions, however, that changes for individual countries may still be significant.

Even so, the current tariff rate on U.S. imports remains only slightly below levels seen at the start of the 20th century. In 1934, the United States passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, which granted the Roosevelt administration the authority to reduce tariffs through bilateral trade agreements without seeking congressional approval for each change. The aim was to combat the Great Depression, promote international trade, and roll back the protectionism introduced by the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. In the decades that followed, the average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports fell sharply, remaining in single-digit territory since 1947.

This text was originally written in German by Matthias Jansen, see the original here.