Democrats Win Districts Carried By Trump in 2024

Democrats picked up at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives in yesterday's U.S. midterm elections and persevered in multiple races rated as highly competitive, including in many districts that Trump carried in the previous presidential election in 2024. Republicans had targeted several Trump-friendly areas in redistricting campaigns and had made electoral boundaries more favorable to candidates from their party.

The biggest swings could be seen in two Texas border districts, both redrawn last year in the Republicans voluntary redistricting effort. After TX-15 and TX-28 had chosen Trump by double-digit margins in 2024, both seats swung the other way this year, seeing Democratic candidates win with more than 60 percent of the vote and 25 percentage points or even 36 percentage points ahead of their competition. In the former district, political newcomer and Tejano musician Bobby Pulido beat the Republican incumbent, while in the latter, Henry Cuellar held on to his seat despite redistricting.

Both Democrats spoke out against ICE raids and Trump's immigration policies as part of their campaigns in their heavily Latino districts. The New York Times calculates that 69 percent of Hispanics voted Democratic in the midterms, a plus of 28 percentage points compared to 2024. This is second only to the shift among voters aged 18-29, whose vote swung by 32 percentage points compared to 2024 to voting 70 percent Democratic.

In Texas' Ninth District, a Democratic win is also expected despite Trump having carried the redrawn district by almost 20 percentage points in 2024. In Tennessee's Fourth, both candidates are still going head to head, also after Republican redistricting. Alabama's Second, in the shape of a 2023 Republican-friendly map whose use was allowed after the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act in April, swung Democratic nevertheless. Districts which didn't change boundaries but changed from heavily favoring Trump in 2024 to picking a Democrat for the House this time around are New Jersey's Ninth and Nevada's Third, both having Democratic incumbents.