Are the Golden Globes a Good Oscar Predictor?

When the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hands the 78th Golden Globes on Monday, things will be a little different than usual. For starters, the ceremony takes place almost two months later than usual, and for the first time ever, it will be held in two different locations. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will welcome a slew of A-list celebrities to present the awards, but the nominees will attend remotely. One thing will not be different this year, however, as the Golden Globes will still be considered an early indicator for triumph at the more prestigious Academy Awards, scheduled to be held on April 25 this year.

As the following chart shows, the Golden Globes are a decent but imperfect Oscar predictor. Using the “Best Picture” category as an example, 65 percent of all Oscar-winning movies since 1950 had won a Golden Globe before, most frequently (48% of the time) in the “Best Drama” category. That would make this year's "Best Drama" winner the favorite for this year’s main prize at the Oscars if it weren’t for an interesting trend that has emerged over the past few years: While a Golden Globe winner also won at the Oscars 12 out of 15 times between 1990 and 2004, 10 of the 15 “Best Picture” winners since 2005 were previously snubbed at the Golden Globes.

Unlike the “Best Picture” category at the Oscars, which isn’t genre-specific, two separate Golden Globes are awarded for “Best Motion Picture – Drama” and “Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy”, effectively doubling the chances of a Golden Globe winner also taking the top honors at the Academy Awards a month later.