Democratic Primary

Decisive Biden Win Could End Sanders Campaign

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders squared off for a one-on-one presidential debate on March 15 ahead of another batch of large states voting on Tuesday. With Biden securing a comfortable delegate lead in the last round of primary voting, the fate of the Sanders campaign could come down to March 17.

For the four states voting this coming Tuesday, all show a strong lead for Biden winning a majority of the delegates from each state. Florida, with 219 delegates up for grabs, shows Biden leading by an average of 42 points on Sanders. Illinois, with 155 delegates, has Biden with an average lead of 29 percent.

Just one month ago, Sanders was looking like the clear frontrunner in a still-populated Democratic primary field, with Biden seemingly fading from the spotlight. However, after a strong showing in South Carolina, Biden gained the support of candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar who dropped out to rally behind the former vice president. Since then, the roles of Sanders and Biden have essentially reversed, with Biden steadily taking a dominant lead in the race and Sanders beginning to struggle to stay afloat.

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This chart shows the polling averages for states voting on March 17 for the Democratic primary.

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Exit polls of the Florida Democratic primary in the United States on March 17, 2020, share of votes by income
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Results of the Florida Democratic primary in the United States in March 2020, by share of votes
Polling average for Democratic nomination candidates in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as of April 2020
Polling average for Democratic nomination candidates in the Texas primary as of March 2019
Polling average for Democratic nomination candidates in the North Carolina primary as of February 2020
Democratic presidential primary delegates allocated to each candidate in the United States as of April 3, 2024

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