Democratic Party Affiliation Reaches Decade High

Ahead of the midterms, affiliation with the Democratic Party in the U.S. has risen to levels last seen in Q1 of 2009, the start of the presidency of Barack Obama. This is according to Gallup.

In Q3 of 2026, 50 percent of respondents to surveys by the polling company said they identified as a Democrat or leaned towards supporting the party. Only 39 percent said this about the Republican Party. In Q1 of 2009, this gap had stood at 13 percentage points. Meanwhile, President Trump’s average approval rating stood at just 41 percent in the year so far, also according to Gallup.

The midterms are typically a time when Americans voice their frustrations with the party in power and 2026 is shaping up to be no different. On the contrary, the decade-high in identification with Democrats might hint at an even bigger disadvantage than the president’s party usually already has in the midterms.

At the same time, redistricting and gerrymandering campaigns are looking to give Republicans an advantage in the November election despite Democrats trying to fight fire with fire, but not being as successful in their campaigns to redraw Congressional maps. Republicans are expected to swing seven districts this way (after the Supreme Court blocked redistricting in Missouri on Sept. 10), while Democrats’ efforts are expected to turn four districts.

Republicans only have a small majority of five seats in the House of Representatives at the moment. Cook Political Report currently rates the House race a toss-up, meaning there is no clear predicted outcome as to which party will gain a majority come November.