Defying Inflation, Americans Have Kept Spending Money

U.S. retail sales grew more than expected in December, rounding off a surprisingly strong year in terms of consumer spending, as Americans continued to spend money in defiance of inflation and high interest rates. According to advance estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, total retail and food services sales - including spending at stores, online and in restaurants - amounted to $709.9 billion in December, up 0.6 percent from the previous month and 6 percent compared to December 2022.

Considering that consumer prices grew by 3.4 percent in December, retail sales outpaced inflation last month, meaning that consumers actually spend more than 12 months earlier, even adjusted for inflation. When measured in constant 1982-1984 dollars, retail sales increased 2.2 percent year-over-year in December, marking the highest increase since February 2022.

As the following chart shows, most of the increase in retail sales over the past two years can be attributed to rising prices, as shoppers have spent more bucks for the same bang. Between December 2021 and December 2023, monthly retail and food services sales (adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday and trading day differences) have increased by 12 percent. Adjusted for CPI inflation, sales have almost flatlined over the past two years, increasing less than 2 percent over the 24-month period. That in itself is remarkable, however, as it means that consumers have kept their buying behavior roughly the same despite surging prices.