VP Pick

Who Is Kamala Harris' Most Likely VP Pick?

Not so long ago, Kamala Harris was going to run for vice president again herself. But since incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden stepped away from the nomination earlier this month, Harris - the most likely Democratic candidate in the 2024 election - is looking for a vice president herself.

There has been a list of rumored candidates and according to website Oddschecker, most people are willing to bet that Harris' pick will be either Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, or Mark Kelly, former astronaut and senator from Arizona. Sticking with the odds calculated by the betting industry, both have about 36-37 percent change of being the VP nominee. Of course, both politicians have ties to important swing states in the upcoming election. This is also true of senator from Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, who has been another rumored pick. However, her odds are being placed at just 2 percent.

More low odds go to Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky at 4.5 percent, and, at 4.8 percent, to Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, whose home state is Indiana. The odds look just a little better for Governor of Minnesota Tim Walz, whose likeliness of becoming the nominee for vice president were placed at 14.3 percent by the source.

A recent survey by Ipsos shows that Mark Kelly is the potential VP pick seen most favorable by the public at a net favorability of +10 percentage points as of July 26-27. Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg all scored +4 percentage points. Only between 22 percent and 34 percent of respondents knew the two governors and the senator, while just over half said they knew transportation secretary Buttigieg.

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This chart shows the implied probability of rumored Harris vice president picks joining her potential presidential ticket in 2024.

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Public opinion on Kamala Harris picking Tim Walz as her running mate in the United States in 2024
Public opinion on Kamala Harris picking Tim Walz as her running mate in the United States in 2024, by age
Approval of potential Republican vice-presidential nominees in the United States in 2024
Favorability of Tim Walz in the United States in October 2024, by political party
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Favorability of Tim Walz in the United States in November 2024

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