Holiday Spending to Hit Record High Amid Economic Doubts in the U.S.

While the holiday season just started with Thanksgiving this Thursday, American consumer spending for the end of the year is set to reach a record high. According to data from the National Retail Federation, the average per capita budget for the 2025 winter holidays (Nov. 1 - Dec. 31) is expected to exceed $1,000, a 4 percent increase from 2024 ($976). As our infographic shows, consumer spending during other major seasonal events was also on the rise this year, from a 2 percent increase (Mother's Day, Valentine's Day) to a 10 percent increase (Halloween), according to estimates.

Yet, those eye-catching averages hide national disparities: while affluent households are expected to splurge even more than in previous years, many lower-income families face stagnant (or even shrinking) holiday budgets, amid economic uncertainty and persistent inflation. In its outlook published last September, the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast of a 3 percent inflation rate in the United States in 2025, signaling "ongoing caution about price pressures and labor market stability".