Iran War Severely Clouds Americans' Economic Outlook

With crude oil prices surging past $100 per barrel due to the war in Iran and U.S. gasoline prices subsequently rising to levels last seen in 2022, Americans have quickly become more pessimistic about the economic outlook. In the latest weekly Economist/YouGov poll, conducted March 13-16, 59 percent of Americans said that the economy was getting worse – up from 50 percent in the last poll before the war and the highest level of pessimism since October 2022.

Interestingly, while there’s still a partisan divide in how the economy is rated, Americans across the political spectrum have been shocked by the war and its potential economic impact. Among Democrats, the share of those saying the economy was getting worse climbed from 76 to 86 percent. Among Republicans, it climbed from 16 to 24 percent and even among MAGA supporters, the share of those saying the economy was headed in the wrong direction doubled from 10 to 20 percent.

The poll also found that Americans are largely against the war with Iran. 56 percent of respondents said they strongly (42 percent) or somewhat (13) opposed the conflict, while 48 percent said that it wasn't justified. While 61 percent of respondents said that the U.S. should end the war as quickly as possible, 24 percent said that military action should continue until all U.S. objectives have been achieved. Two thirds of respondents believe that the conflict will be resolved within a year, whereas 33 percent of Americans think it will drag on for longer than that.