Which Countries Rely Most on Gulf Fertilizer Imports?

UN Food and Agriculture Organization experts warn that prolonged fertilizer shortages amid the Iran war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are a major threat to food security and prices. This will disproportionately hit middle- and lower-income countries, with those that have a high dependence on Gulf imports particularly exposed. According to UNCTAD data, Sudan (54 percent), Sri Lanka (36 percent), Tanzania (31 percent), Somalia (30 percent) and Pakistan (27 percent) are among these nations.

Poorer countries risk being impacted in multiple ways. Firstly, unlike rich nations like Australia and New Zealand (appears in rank 9 at 26 percent), import-dependent countries that are also economically less developed may find it harder to absorb price hikes. This affordability issue would be exacerbated by bidding wars, with wealthier nations outbidding poorer ones. According to some reports this has already started to happen.

At the same time, where farms in richer countries may have had a plentiful amount of fertilizer in recent years and are able to reduce the amount of fertilizer used for a time with less effect, the same is not necessarily true everywhere. This includes multiple countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where farmers may already be under-using fertilizer to keep costs low. Countries therefore operating with a lower baseline for fertilizer use due to a combination of affordability, access and infrastructure challenges, could see the effects of even small reductions in fertilizers on their yields more dramatically.

The true extent of the fertilizer crisis, in terms of food shortages and higher food costs, is expected to become visible only in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027, when harvests planted now could be smaller than usual. Regions that are currently entering the planting season and those already facing acute food insecurity or economic fragility are at increased risk.

As WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau warns, the spike in global food and fuel costs "could leave millions of families priced out of staple foods, particularly in import-dependent countries, like sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.”