Indian Metros Increase Ridership, But Stay Behind Projections

India has been busy building metro train networks, which now service upwards of 20 cities. However, ridership far below expected numbers has been an issue for older as well as newer systems, stemming from habitual exaggeration in planning documents, but also from low system maturity, a lack of inter-connectivity and last-mile connectivity as well as affordability issues.

An analysis by Statista has found that some Indian metro systems have actually increased their average daily ridership lately, reaching 40-60 percent of projections in major cities, up from the only 25 to 35 percent often cited a few years back. Delhi, where new lines have opened as recently as this year, reached 41 percent of projected ridership against original projections of 1.6 million daily riders. Compared to a drastically lowered new goal of just 400,000, the city has overshot its estimates by far, which the Ministry of Housing subsequently complained about.

A rise in ridership could be seen in Chennai, where Phase 1 construction was wrapped up in 2022. As of March, the metro counted 464,000 daily riders, 60 percent of the projected 775,000. The system is praised online for ease of use, working interchanges, high frequency of trains and a maximum price of just 50 rupees per trip.

Newer systems, often in somewhat smaller cities, as well as Mumbai's newest line 3 (Aqua line) continue to suffer from very low ridership, however. Yet, many of these systems are still in their phase 1 or early phase 2 implementation, meaning that as more lines get built, systems can become more attractive, given that issues like lack of sidewalks leading to stations, lack of drop-off locations, lack of interchanges or lack of busses and auto-rickshaws connecting to stations are also addressed. Mumbai struggles with additional issues not exclusively on its newest line. The city has several metro operators, which means free transfers or even interchange stations are often not a given.

Prices are also high in Mumbai, reaching as much as 80 rupees/$0.85 for a single trip, which is an issue for Indian metros that might be hardest to solve. The number of residents who can afford such fares for weekday commuting without spending more than 10 percent of household income on travel is very limited, a study by The Infravision Foundation has found. While in the country's largest cities, this share is actually the highest, tier-2 and tier-3 city metros can expect to struggle even more due to affordability.