From Switch to Switch 2: The Cycles of Nintendo's Success

On Thursday, Nintendo finally released the Switch 2, the long-awaited successor of the Switch, which made its debut in 2017. Despite Nintendo's reputation for taking big risks and making bold moves - think the motion-controlled Wii in 2006 or succeeding the successful Wii with an entirely new concept in the Wii U - the Japanese company is playing it relatively safe this time. The Switch 2 clearly builds on the proven and highly popular foundation laid by the original Switch, keeping the basic concept alive and just making refinements that bring the ageing device to 2025 and beyond.

Following the disastrous spell of the Wii U, which ended in its early retirement, Nintendo took a huge gamble with its follow-up console. Once again, the company didn't try to copy the successful recipe of Microsoft's Xbox or Sony's PlayStation business, but went with its own approach instead. Little more than eight years after the Switch's release in March 2017, it can safely be said that the gamble to make it a hybrid between home and handheld console paid off.

Not only was the Switch a return to form after the Wii U disaster, but it even ended up overtaking the Wii as Nintendo's most successful home console ever in terms of sales. With more than 150 million units sold, the Switch is not only Nintendo's greatest hit, but also the second most successful console of all time, trailing only the PlayStation 2, of which Sony sold 160 million units over its lifetime.

And while the Switch still has some life left in it, probably as a lower-priced, entry-level alternative, the end of its lifecycle is now officially on the horizon. As the following chart shows, every console cycle comes to an end eventually, and none of Nintendo's previous consoles have managed to turn things back around once sales had started to decline. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, Nintendo expects to sell 4.5 million Switch consoles, which would bring it into touching distance of the PlayStation 2 record.