In-depth: eMobility 2020

Statista Mobility Market Outlook

In-depth: eMobility 2020 In 2019 global electric vehicle sales surpassed the two million threshold, almost doubling the sales from 2017. The report shows how Mainland China is leading the way with a market share of 50%, leaving the U.S. and European countries far behind.

Car manufacturers are pushing to bring out new electric car models and have big plans for the future. The 2019 race for the highest market share was won by Tesla’s Model 3 with 14%, followed by BAIC EU-Series and Nissan Leaf with 5% and 3% respectively.

What's included?
  • Market sizes, forecasts, drivers, challenges & trends
  • Deep dives on battery technology, public transport, e-scooters & more
  • Consumer insights & expert opinion
  • Competitive landscape: BMW, BYD, General Motors, Nissan, Tesla
  • Vehicle specifications, incl. model, battery specifications, reach, etc.

This report offers insights into the eMobility market, focusing on electric cars, e-scooters, e-bikes, e-buses, and e-LCVs but also giving further insights. The Excel file complements the report with a detailed list of currently available electric vehicle models and their specifications.

The history of electric vehicles started in the early 1800s, but it only took off when Tesla entered the market and reignited public interest in electric cars. In 2019, global electric vehicle sales surpassed the two million threshold, and many countries are now pushing to increase the number of electric cars on their streets. Currently, Mainland China is leading the way with a market share of almost 50%, leaving the U.S. and European countries far behind. Car manufacturers are pushing to bring out new electric car models and have big plans for the future. The 2019 race for the highest market share was won by Tesla’s Model 3 with 14%, followed by the BAIC EU-Series and Nissan Leaf with 5% and 3% respectively.

There are three major drivers of the electric vehicle market: government policies, the Tesla effect, and lower battery costs. Governments are trying to achieve their emission goals set in various global agreements and have devised various incentive schemes to further electric vehicle sales. While electric vehicles are a major step in furthering environmental goals, Tesla managed to add the element of high performance along with an aesthetic appeal, thereby playing a pivotal role in changing the industry’s overall appeal. The drastic fall in the price of battery packs is also driving mass adoption of these vehicles.

Five main challenges hinder the adoption of electric vehicles: the lack of infrastructure, e.g., charging stations, limited range, high up-front costs, lack of consumer knowledge, and the pressure of oil companies and the car manufacturer lobby. Not only are charging stations still very few and far between, they are usually from different suppliers without a standardized charging and payment system. High up-front costs make electrical vehicles still less attractive than traditional internal combustion engine cars, mainly due to high battery costs, which often account for as much as 50% of the total vehicle cost. Moreover, consumers still do not know enough or have concerns regarding electric vehicles, and oil companies and OEMs lobby against the fast adoption of electric vehicles.

Autonomous driving and electric cars are irrevocably intertwined. Easier integration and component control make self-driving cars easier to realize with electric vehicles than with internal combustion engines. While the U.S. pioneers this trend, Mainland China will be the market leader. Despite the challenges, lithium-ion batteries are still expected to dominate the battery market for electric vehicles. This is mainly because the development of new battery technologies is very expensive and complicated. Due to their low operating costs, electric vehicles are also part of the ride-sharing movement, with many car manufacturers launching electric carsharing operations.

Lithium-ion batteries dominate the market mainly because they deliver the highest range at a lower cost as compared to any other battery. However, owing to limitations such as long charging times, heavy weight, size, and the amount of charge they can hold, companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan, and Tesla are now investing in solid-state, lithium-sulfur, and zinc-air batteries to be used in their future models. Further, universities, technology companies, and independent battery start-ups are collaborating to develop other types of batteries, such as aluminum-ion, smart-membranes, and graphene-based supercapacitors, in order to enable faster charging times and longer life cycles.

Rising pollution levels, potential operational cost savings, and heavy dependence on public transportation are the three major factors driving the gradual switch from hydrocarbon-based to electrified public transport. The total number of electric buses in the world is expected to witness a 300% increase from 386,000 in 2017 to about 1.2 million in 2025, with Mainland China accounting for a share of 99%. Financial support from the government, a large urban population and the resultant pollution, a lack of legacy transport infrastructure, global trade, and increased public awareness are the five key reasons for Mainland China’s dominance.

E-scooters recently gained popularity and are believed to be the solution to the problem of last-mile transportation in many global markets. Even though the need to restrict environmental damage caused mainly by polluting vehicles is the overarching reason behind the development of various alternate fuel technologies, the e-scooter industry specifically is driven by the rise in micro-mobility. This aims to transform urban transportation through the use of cheaper and quicker alternatives to cars, especially in dense urban areas in the U.S., Asia, and Latin America.

E-bikes are essentially conventional bicycles equipped with a rechargeable battery and motor, which helps them gain momentum faster and achieve speeds of up to 30 miles an hour. They look and function just like a traditional bicycle and give riders the option to use the pedal as and when they desire. They can be classified according to their functionality (mountain bikes, road bikes, hybrid bikes, folding bikes, and utility bikes) or according to their design (Pedal Assist / Pedelec, Throttle, and Speed Pedelec). The growing popularity of e-scooters around the world has piqued interest in e-bikes. The first e-bike was manufactured in Japan in 1993, with Yamaha launching its pedal assist bicycle.

As the electric drive of vehicles gradually gains momentum across the world, the next phase of growth is expected to be driven mainly by vans and trucks. The need to switch to cleaner engines is far greater for these larger vehicles, given that they pollute more than cars. Even though less than 5% of vehicles in Europe are commercial vehicles or heavy-duty trucks, they contribute to almost 20% of greenhouse gas emissions. One of the main reasons why the light commercial vehicles (LCV) industry is witnessing electric disruption at such a fast pace is its high and predictable use rate.

Consumer insights show that gasoline and diesel lead in terms of drives in respondents’ primarily used car in the U.S., the UK, and Germany. While gasoline is still the most probable drive in a future car, hybrids and electric drives are catching up. Electric drives are seen as sustainable and environmentally friendly but not as sporty, whereas gasoline drives score in terms of suitability for day-to-day use and sportiness. In Germany, state subsidies for electric cars are seen as low, and less environmental pollution is seen as the main benefit of an electric car. The most innovative brand in the field of alternative drives is Tesla, which is also the brand most associated with electromobility.

German eMobility experts see business conditions in Germany critically as compared to other countries, and the government’s promotion has little/no influence on the sales of electric vehicles. Experts expect less diesel drives by 2020 and more hybrid and electric drives when it comes to new car registrations. The extension of charging points has the highest influence on the market as 53% see the current infrastructure as very/rather bad. Tesla is seen as being the best-in-class among OEMS regarding reach, ease of use, and battery performance, and self-driving cars are seen as a game changer for the mobility sector.

Tesla is the most recognized electrical vehicle brand in the world, selling over 300,000 units of the Model 3 in 2019. Aesthetics and longer ranges as compared to other EVs are the primary reasons for its success. However, production issues with the Model 3 have resulted in delays and liquidity problems. BYD is one of the largest selling brands in Mainland China with limited focus on international markets. The company has six electrical vehicle models in the market, and it sold more than 260,000 electrical vehicle units in 2019. Other leading companies include BAIC, BMW, General Motors, and Nissan.

Mainland China, the U.S., and Germany were the three biggest markets for electrical vehicles in 2019 and accounted for more than 71% of all electrical vehicle sales globally in 2019. Brazil and Australia witnessed the largest increase in electrical vehicle sales in 2019 with growth rates of 355% and 154% respectively. In Japan, electrical vehicles sales declined in 2019, continuing the downward trend of 2018. In terms of charging infrastructure, Mainland China again leads the pack with more than 515,000 publicly accessible charging points, followed by the U.S. (ca. 77,000), the Netherlands (ca. 50,000), and Germany (ca. 37,000).

Since 2013, the number of plug-in electric vehicles has been steadily rising in the EU, from 24,549 cars sold in 2013 to 149,955 cars sold in 2018. The top 10 countries in 2018 were Germany, France, the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden, Austria, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Belgium. Most of these countries saw a sharp increase in 2017 or 2018 due to ever increasing new PEV releases. While the number of electric vehicles increased considerably in 2018, plug-in electric vehicles still have a low market share. The Netherlands leads with a 5.8% share, followed by Malta (3.4%), Austria (2.0%), and Portugal (1.9%).

  • Language: English
  • Released: July 2020
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