The next U.S. recession

Statista trend report on the likelihood of an imminent next recession in the United States with a comparison to previous recessions

The next U.S. recession

The next U.S. recession is imminent and likely to cause more damage than the recent downturn in 2020. Between March and April 2020, the United States experienced a sharp decline in economic activity, which was triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to curb the spread of infection. Still, this recession paled in comparison to the previous recession, known as the Great Recession, which occurred between January 2008 and June 2009. The Great Recession decimated the economy and resulted in millions of job losses and financial ruin for many.

Today, another downturn is looming: The yield curve inversion of March 2022 combined with rapidly rising inflation are the main warning signs for this next recession. ​

This report provides a comparison of the events which led to the last two recessions and the present economic conditions. Additionally, it provides insights into public sentiment regarding the next recession as well as an outlook for the future.

Table of contents

1. Economy

  • Real GDP
  • Employment
  • Real income
  • Manufacturing
  • Wholesale retail sales

2. Likelihood of recession by 2024
  • Yield curve inversion
  • Inflation rate vs federal funds rate
  • Historical correlation between inversion and recession

3. Housing market crash
  • Home price appreciation
  • Mortgage debt
  • Foreclosures
  • Home price forecast until 2023

4. Banking sector
  • Impact on stock market
  • G-SIBs
  • CET1 ratio

5. Stock market crash
  • Largest one-day losses
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • S&P 500
  • Nasdaq Composite

6. Outlook for the future
  • Timeline of the next recession
  • GDP forecast: U.S., UK, Germany, and Asia

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