Trade War

Tariffs On Mexico Could Cost 400,000 U.S. Jobs

Last week, President Trump announced that tariffs on Mexican goods are "indefinitely suspended" after the U.S. and Mexico reached a deal on immigration enforcement. Before the agreement, a string of reports predicted profound economic consequences on both sides of the border if tariffs had been implemented. One analysis by The Perryman Group even forecast more than 400,000 job losses.

Texas would have been the state hardest hit, losing up to $11.9 billion in GDP, along with 117,000 job losses. When it comes to the different sectors that would have been impacted, Retail Trade would have had the highest losses at 136,516, followed by Manufacturing and Other Services with approximately 57,000 each.

Description

This chart shows the estimated job losses due to a 5% tariff on Mexican goods by sector.

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Projected overall number of jobs gained or lost as a result of steel and aluminum tariffs and subsequent retaliations in 2018, by state*
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Projected overall number of jobs gained or lost by steel and aluminum tariffs and subsequent retaliations in 2018, by sector *
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Estimated impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs on GDP and capital stock in the United States as of November 2025
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Estimated impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on the Brazilian states as of July 2025
Number of job losses in Mexico in the 1st quarter 2025, by reason
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Change in long-run real GDP from trade tariffs in the United States as of January 19, 2026, by sector

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