Since its invention in 1817, the bicycle has conquered the world as one of the most popular means of transport. Overall, around 143,000,000 million bicycles were sold worldwide in 2022. This is slightly less than in 2020, but still on a higher level than in previous years. The largest share of bicycles sales was in Asia, in which China is leading with around 43,000,000 units sold in 2022. The region with the second highest bicycles’ sales in 2022 is Europe with around 24,000,000 bicycles. Most bicycles were sold there in Germany and France. North America had the third highest sales figures with around 22,000,000. Most bicycles were sold there in the United States.
Sales growth has been steady over the past decade. Only the years 2020 and 2021 states an exception to this trend. The reason for this pace of growth is the fact that bicycles belong into the category of durable goods within the group of consumer goods. However, there are two mega trends underlining this growth. First, people pursue a healthier lifestyle, especially in North America, Europe, and in parts of Asia. Riding a bicycle is often perceived as good physical exercise. Second, in the face of climate change, non-fossil-fueled means of transport are in higher demand for personal mobility. The bicycle is seen as an attractive alternative to the car for short and medium distances, e.g., for buying groceries or commuting to the workplace.
Rising standards of living may state a risk to the positive development of global bicycles sales. Due to more available income, people can afford more expensive goods offering more convenience or prestige. Especially in countries in Asia, people might therefore tend to substitute bicycles for scooters or mopeds in the future as these are perceived as more convenient for travelling.
In the past two years, the covid pandemic lead to a peak boom in bicycles´ sales. Lockdowns and the resulting desire to get out and be physically active have dramatically increased demand for bicycles. This has particularly driven consumers in North America, Europe, and in parts of Asia. In 2022, sales decreased compared to 2020, however, remaining on a higher level than in pre-pandemic years. We expect the market to continue with its steady growth following its long-term trend.
Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the sales of bicycles and the respective average prices for bicycles.Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Bottom-Up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use publications of industry associations, expert blogs, and data provided by governments and scientific institutions. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, population, and consumer spending per capita (based on current prices). This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the ARIMA time series forecast and forecasts based on previous growth rates are well suited for forecasting the future demand for bicycles due to the brick and mortar nature of this market. The main drivers are GDP, consumer spending per capita, and population.Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated once a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development).
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