U.S. three-month moving average Chicago Fed National Activity Index 2021-2023
In October 2023, the three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3) stood at -0.2 for the United States. The CFNAI-MA3 is used to identify whether the economy is moving into or out of a recession. When the CFNAI-MA3 value stays below -0.7 for at least six months, it is a strong indicator that the country is moving into an economic recession. Adversely, if the index value is above 0.7 for at least six months, the country is likely moving away from, or out of, an economic recession.
