New Analysis

The economic impact of Brexit scenarios

Official forecasts for the economic impact of Brexit paint far from a positive picture of the UK's future outside of the EU. The figures released by the government yesterday forecast that, over 15 years, May's Brexit agreement terms would lead to the economy shrinking by 3.9 percent compared to today's arrangements. Even bleaker is of course the prospect of a no deal Brexit. In this case, a devastating drop of 9.3 percent could be expected.

Description

This chart presents the estimated economic impact of Brexit on the UK in different leave scenarios.

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Forecasted change in GDP for selected European countries in 2030 as a result of the UK leaving the EU, by scenario*
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Forecasted long-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenario
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Forecasted percentage change of major economic indicators in a 'no transition no deal' Brexit scenario in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018*
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Forecasted effects of Brexit on real gross domestic product in the United Kingdom from 2016 to 2035
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Estimated impact of UK-EU trade under Hard Brexit scenarios on gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2021
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Forecasted long-term effects of the Brexit on GBP per household in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenario

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