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Forecasted effect of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) 2018-2023
Forecasted short-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018-2023
by Statista Research Department,
last edited
Apr 27, 2016
In the lead-up to the Brexit referendum of 2016 the central argument of those who wished to remain in the European Union was that leaving would have negative economic consequences. Prior to the referendum the OECD predicted that by 2020, that the British economy could be 3.3 percent smaller than it would have been without Brexit, and 2.5 percent smaller in 2023.
No Brexit, no problem?
The political deadlock surrounding the British establishment resulted in the UK government delaying Brexit, potentially until October 31, 2019. Despite the uncertainty the British economy has shown some positive signals, growing by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2019. The most recent employment data was also encouraging, with the unemployment rate falling to just 3.8 percent as of March 2019.
Deal or no deal?
Until it is made clear what exact relationship Britain will have with the European Union, any forecasts made will be limited in their reliability. The current Brexit deal, with suggests Britain will leave both the single market and the customs union, has been rejected by the House of Commons three times. It could be the case that Britain still leaves with no deal, pivots toward a closer trading relationship, or doesn’t leave at all.
Forecasted short-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018-2023
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by Statista Research Department,
last edited
Apr 27, 2016
In the lead-up to the Brexit referendum of 2016 the central argument of those who wished to remain in the European Union was that leaving would have negative economic consequences. Prior to the referendum the OECD predicted that by 2020, that the British economy could be 3.3 percent smaller than it would have been without Brexit, and 2.5 percent smaller in 2023.
No Brexit, no problem?
The political deadlock surrounding the British establishment resulted in the UK government delaying Brexit, potentially until October 31, 2019. Despite the uncertainty the British economy has shown some positive signals, growing by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2019. The most recent employment data was also encouraging, with the unemployment rate falling to just 3.8 percent as of March 2019.
Deal or no deal?
Until it is made clear what exact relationship Britain will have with the European Union, any forecasts made will be limited in their reliability. The current Brexit deal, with suggests Britain will leave both the single market and the customs union, has been rejected by the House of Commons three times. It could be the case that Britain still leaves with no deal, pivots toward a closer trading relationship, or doesn’t leave at all.
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- Release date
- April 2016
- Region
- United Kingdom
- Survey time period
- April 27, 2016
Source
- Show sources information
- Show publisher information
- Release date
- April 2016
More information
- Region
- United Kingdom
- Survey time period
- April 27, 2016
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Brexit and EU trade
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Statistics on "UK economic and financial indicators post Brexit referendum"
- GDP Forecasts
The most important statistics
- Forecasted short-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018-2023Forecasted effect of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) 2018-2023
- Forecasted long-term effects of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenarioForecasted effect of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030
- Forecasted long-term effects of the Brexit on GBP per household in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, by scenarioForecasted effect of Brexit on GBP per household in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030
- Financial Indicators
The most important statistics
- Daily post-Brexit currency exchange rates of the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Euro (EUR) June to July 2016Post-Brexit currency exchange rates of Pound Sterling to Euro
- Euro (EUR) to British pound (GBP) monthly exchange rate from January 2014 to September 2019Euro to British pound monthly exchange rate 2014-2019
- Monthly closing of the FTSE 100 Index capital return (London Stock Exchange) from January 2015 to July 2019 (in index value points)Monthly development of the FTSE 100 Index capital return 2015-2019
- Monthly closing of the FTSE 250 Index (London Stock Exchange) between January 2015 to July 2019 (in index value points)Monthly closing of the FTSE 250 Index - Capital returns 2015-2019
- Impact of Brexit on selected stock indices as of June 24, 2016Reaction of stock exchanges to Brexit 2016
- Economic Indicators
The most important statistics
- Monthly percentage change on a year earlier of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom (UK) from July 2017 to July 2019Inflation rate (CPI) in the United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the United Kingdom (UK) from October 2015 to September 2017Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the UK 2015-2017
- Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2015 to September 2016Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the UK 2015-2016
- Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the European Union (EU) from October 2015 to September 2017Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the EU 2015-2017
- Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the United Kingdom (UK) from July 2017 to July 2019Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2019
- Economic Forecasts
The most important statistics
- Forecasted Euro (EUR) to Pound sterling (GBP) exchange rate profiles under Brexit referendum from 2016 to 2019*, by scenarioForecasted EUR GBP exchange rate profiles under different Brexit scenarios 2016-2019
- Forecasted losses in UK total exports by main EU market in a post Brexit scenario as of 2015 (in billion GBP)Post-Brexit: forecasted losses in UK total exports by main EU market 2015
- Forecasted losses in United Kingdom (UK) total exports in a post-Brexit scenario 2015, by scenario and economic sector (in billion GBP) Post-Brexit: forecasted losses in total UK exports 2015, by scenario and sector
- Potential cost of EU tariffs on food exports from the United Kingdom (UK) to the European Union (EU) in 2015, by product category* (in million GBP) Potential cost of EU tariffs on food exports from UK to European Union (EU) in 2015
- Producer Price Index
The most important statistics
- Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI): Net output and input of manufactured products in the United Kingdom from July 2017 to July 2019Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) of the United Kingdom 2017-2019
- Producer Price Index (PPI): Net output and input of manufactured products in the United Kingdom from 2000 to 2018Producer Price Index (PPI) of the United Kingdom 2000-2018
- Quarterly Producer Price Index (PPI): Net output and input of manufactured products in the United Kingdom from second quarter 2014 to second quarter 2019Quarterly Producer Price Index (PPI) of the United Kingdom 2014-2019
- Producer Price Index (PPI): Net input prices of materials and fuels purchased in the United Kingdom (UK) from May 2017 to April 2019*UK Producer Price Index (PPI): Monthly input prices 2017-2019
- Producer Price Index (PPI): Net input prices of materials and fuels purchased (excluding food, beverage, tobacco & petroleum industries) in the United Kingdom from August 2015 to April 2019*Producer Price Index (PPI) UK - input prices (excl. volatile industries) 2015-2019
- Consumer Price Inflation
The most important statistics
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for food and non-alcoholic beverages in the United Kingdom (UK) from July 2017 to July 2019CPI: Food and non-alcoholic beverages in UK 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels in the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2017 to August 2019CPI: Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels in the UK 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for health in the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2017 to August 2019CPI: health in the United Kingdom 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for transport in the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2017 to August 2019CPI of the transport sector in the UK 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) within the communication sector of the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2017 to August 2019CPI of communication sector in UK 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) within the recreation and culture sectors in the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2017 to August 2019CPI of recreation and culture sector in the UK 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) within the education sector of the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2017 to August 2019CPI of education sector in the UK 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) within the restaurant and hotels sector of the United Kingdom (UK) from August 2017 to August 2019CPI of restaurants and hotels in the UK 2017-2019
- Business Perception
The most important statistics
- Preparedness of Chief Financial Officers (CFO) for the United Kingdom (UK) exit from the EU 2016Preparedness of CFOs for the United Kingdom exit from the EU 2016
- How would your company's production and/or human resources capacity change in the UK within three years of a Brexit?Predicted change to company's UK production and/or human resources post Brexit
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your country's employment levels?Predicted effect of Brexit on British and German employment levels 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your industry's revenue?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect revenues of the UK industry in 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your industry's investment levels?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect industry investment levels UK 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your industry's employment levels?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect industry employment levels UK 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's revenue?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company revenues in the UK 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's investment levels?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company investment levels UK 2016
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Further Content: Statistics, Studies, and Topic Pages
Statistics
- European opinion: predicted impact of Brexit on the UK economy
- Forecasted economic effects or a no-deal Brexit on the UK economy in 2018
- Forecasted losses from WTO tariffs UK in Belgium 2019, by export sector
- Forecasted jobs lost in the Benelux as a result of the Brexit 2017, by country
- Forecasted losses from WTO tariffs UK in the Netherlands 2019, by export sector
- Forecasted unemployment share in the Benelux as result Brexit 2017, by country
- Capital gains tax receipts forecast United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2024
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- Forecasted change to primary deficit, as share of GDP forecast UK 2017-2024
- Export markets year-to-year change forecast UK 2017-2023
- Retail price index (RPI) forecast UK 2017-2023
- Business Fixed investment expenditure forecast UK 2017-2023
- Government consumption forecast United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2024
- Unemployment rate forecast United Kingdom 2017-2023
- Forecasted growth in the United Kingdom's GDP 2017-2023
- Brazil: public opinion on current state of economy 2018
- Gross domestic product for agriculture in Gujarat in India 2011-2017
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- Export value of general machinery from Japan 2010-2018
- Gross domestic product for agriculture in Maharashtra in India 2011-2018
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Statistics on "UK economic and financial indicators post Brexit referendum"
- Forecasted effect of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) 2018-2023
- Forecasted effect of Brexit on real GDP in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030
- Forecasted effect of Brexit on GBP per household in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030
- Post-Brexit currency exchange rates of Pound Sterling to Euro
- Euro to British pound monthly exchange rate 2014-2019
- Monthly development of the FTSE 100 Index capital return 2015-2019
- Monthly closing of the FTSE 250 Index - Capital returns 2015-2019
- Reaction of stock exchanges to Brexit 2016
- Inflation rate (CPI) in the United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2019
- Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the UK 2015-2017
- Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the UK 2015-2016
- Monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the EU 2015-2017
- Business Confidence Index (BCI) in the United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2019
- Forecasted EUR GBP exchange rate profiles under different Brexit scenarios 2016-2019
- Post-Brexit: forecasted losses in UK total exports by main EU market 2015
- Post-Brexit: forecasted losses in total UK exports 2015, by scenario and sector
- Potential cost of EU tariffs on food exports from UK to European Union (EU) in 2015
- Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) of the United Kingdom 2017-2019
- Producer Price Index (PPI) of the United Kingdom 2000-2018
- Quarterly Producer Price Index (PPI) of the United Kingdom 2014-2019
- UK Producer Price Index (PPI): Monthly input prices 2017-2019
- Producer Price Index (PPI) UK - input prices (excl. volatile industries) 2015-2019
- CPI: Food and non-alcoholic beverages in UK 2017-2019
- CPI: Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels in the UK 2017-2019
- CPI: health in the United Kingdom 2017-2019
- CPI of the transport sector in the UK 2017-2019
- CPI of communication sector in UK 2017-2019
- CPI of recreation and culture sector in the UK 2017-2019
- CPI of education sector in the UK 2017-2019
- CPI of restaurants and hotels in the UK 2017-2019
- CPI of miscellaneous goods and services in the UK 2000-2018
- CPI in the United Kingdom (UK) in August 2019, by product category
- Preparedness of CFOs for the United Kingdom exit from the EU 2016
- Predicted change to company's UK production and/or human resources post Brexit
- Predicted effect of Brexit on British and German employment levels 2016
- Business perspective: how Brexit would affect revenues of the UK industry in 2016
- Business perspective: how Brexit would affect industry investment levels UK 2016
- Business perspective: how Brexit would affect industry employment levels UK 2016
- Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company revenues in the UK 2016
- Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company investment levels UK 2016
- Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company employment levels UK 2016
- Distribution of perceived business performance advantages of UK remaining in EU 2016
- CFOs perception of the "Brexit" in the United Kingdom (UK) 2016
- European opinion: predicted impact of Brexit on the UK economy
- Forecasted economic effects or a no-deal Brexit on the UK economy in 2018
- Forecasted losses from WTO tariffs UK in Belgium 2019, by export sector
- Forecasted jobs lost in the Benelux as a result of the Brexit 2017, by country
- Forecasted losses from WTO tariffs UK in the Netherlands 2019, by export sector
- Forecasted unemployment share in the Benelux as result Brexit 2017, by country
- Capital gains tax receipts forecast United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2024
- Forecasted corporation tax receipts United Kingdom 2017-2024
- Forecasted change to primary deficit, as share of GDP forecast UK 2017-2024
- Export markets year-to-year change forecast UK 2017-2023
- Retail price index (RPI) forecast UK 2017-2023
- Business Fixed investment expenditure forecast UK 2017-2023
- Government consumption forecast United Kingdom (UK) 2017-2024
- Unemployment rate forecast United Kingdom 2017-2023
- Forecasted growth in the United Kingdom's GDP 2017-2023
- Brazil: public opinion on current state of economy 2018
- Gross domestic product for agriculture in Gujarat in India 2011-2017
- Financial account reserve assets balance of payments in Japan 2010-2016
- Export value of general machinery from Japan 2010-2018
- Gross domestic product for agriculture in Maharashtra in India 2011-2018
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