Potential effect on GDP if the UK exits the EU

This graph shows the predicted change in real GDP per capita in 2030 for different “Brexit” scenarios in comparison to GDP per capita if the UK remains in the EU. Two different scenarios were considered. In the case of a total isolation from the EU, it was predicted that the GDP of the UK would be negatively affected to the tune of 2.98 percent.

Forecasted change in GDP for selected European countries in 2030 as a result of the UK leaving the EU, by scenario*

Soft exitIsolation of UK
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Release date



Europe, United Kingdom

Survey time period

May 2015

Supplementary notes

* Real GDP per capita

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Statistics on "EU membership referendum in the United Kingdom (UK)"

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