Market Insights Consumer Tobacco Products

Cigarettes - Mexico

Mexico

In 2024, the revenue in the Cigarettes market in Mexico is estimated to be US$5.8bn.
Looking ahead, the market is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 3.34% (CAGR 2024-2028).
When compared globally, in China generates the highest revenue in this segment, reaching US$282,900m in 2024.
Considering the total population, this translates to per person revenues of US$52.80 in 2024.
Moving on to volume, it is expected to reach 30.8bn pieces units by 2028.
However, in 2025, the Cigarettes market is anticipated to show a slight decline in volume growth, with a rate of -0.4%.
On average, each person in Mexico is expected to consume 284.5pieces units of cigarettes in 2024.
Despite efforts to reduce smoking rates, Mexico continues to have a high demand for cigarettes, with a strong preference for local brands.

Key regions: Philippines, Germany, Worldwide, Russia, Indonesia

Market

Region

Region comparison

Currency

Analyst Opinion

Cigarettes represent more than 90% of the value in the traditional Tobacco Products market. The mainstay of Big Tobacco has come under heightened scrutiny from regulatory bodies and the public, which has led to an enduring decline in volume sales. Due to high levels of taxation, roughly half of all revenues go directly to the state in the form of various excise duties and sales taxes.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on consumer spending on Cigarettes.

Modeling approach:

The segment size is determined through a bottom-up approach. In order to analyze the markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, trade data, national statistical office data, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., Statista Consumer Insights), as well as performance factors. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as smoking rates, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques, such as exponential trend smoothing and regression analysis. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). Consumer Insights data is reweighted for representativeness.