Market Insights Consumer Tobacco Products

Cigarettes - Worldwide

Worldwide

In the year 2023, the Cigarettes market worldwide generated a revenue of US$0.8tn.
It is predicted that this market will experience an annual growth rate of 2.52% (CAGR 2023-2028).
When comparing global figures, it is noteworthy that in China generates the highest revenue in this segment, reaching US$278,700m in 2023.
On a per person basis, the revenue generated in the Cigarettes market amounts to US$129.40 in 2023.
Looking ahead to 2028, it is expected that the volume in the Cigarettes market will reach a total of 5.2tn pieces units.
However, in 2024, a slight decline in volume growth is anticipated, with a rate of -0.4%.
On average, each person is projected to consume 0.8k pieces units of cigarettes in the year 2023.
The Cigarettes market is a significant market segment contributing to the global economy.
Cigarette consumption in the United States has been declining steadily due to increased awareness of health risks and stricter regulations, however the industry still remains profitable as the hike in prices offsets the losses made by lower volume sales.

Key regions: Indonesia, United States, Singapore, Germany, Philippines

Market

Region

Region comparison

Currency

Analyst Opinion

Cigarette sales have been declining in most countries over the years. Surprisingly, this trend was reversed during the COVID-19 pandemic in many markets, including the U.S., which saw a growth of 2.3% in sales volumes in 2020 compared to 2019. Among the key factors that contributed to sales increases in many countries were stringent border controls during the pandemic, which resulted in a decrease in the illicit trade of cigarettes, and pandemic-related anxiety, which led to pantry loading.

However, this was only a short-term phenomenon, and we expect volume sales to continue declining in the majority of markets. Nevertheless, there will be a few exceptions to this trend, particularly in Asian countries. In Indonesia, for example, the world's second largest market by volume, we expect cigarette sales to increase in the medium term due to factors such as a lax regulatory environment and cheap prices.

One of the threats to the industry that could cause disruption in the long term is the emergence of cigarette alternatives such as TAAT, which are marketed as lower-risk alternatives that provide the same experience as a traditional cigarette without containing nicotine or tobacco.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on consumer spending on Cigarettes.

Modeling approach:

The segment size is determined through a bottom-up approach. In order to analyze the markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, trade data, national statistical office data, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey), as well as performance factors. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as smoking rates, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques, such as exponential trend smoothing and regression analysis. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.