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Quick Commerce - Nigeria

Nigeria

The Quick Commerce market in Nigeria is projected to reach a revenue of ₦US$400.50m in 2024.
It is expected to experience an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 17.55%, resulting in a projected market volume of ₦US$899.10m by 2029.
By that time, the number of users in the Quick Commerce market is expected to reach 17.5m users.
The user penetration rate, which measures the percentage of the population using Quick Commerce market services, is projected to be 4.5% in 2024 and is expected to increase to 6.8% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is anticipated to be ₦US$39.15.
In terms of global comparison, China is expected to generate the highest revenue in the Quick Commerce market, reaching ₦US$80,840.00m in 2024.
Furthermore, China also has the highest projected user penetration rate at 21.4%.
With the rise of online platforms and increasing smartphone penetration, Nigeria is witnessing a surge in quick commerce services, providing convenient and efficient delivery of goods and services to its tech-savvy population.

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Analyst Opinion

Quick Commerce, also known as Q-commerce, is a rapidly growing market in Nigeria. The market has been driven by various factors, including the increasing use of smartphones and the internet, rising urbanization, and changing consumer preferences.

Customer preferences: Nigerian consumers are increasingly looking for convenience and speed in their shopping experiences. They are drawn to the convenience of Q-commerce, which allows them to order products online and have them delivered to their doorstep within hours. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated the adoption of Q-commerce, as consumers look for safer and contactless ways to shop.

Trends in the market: The Q-commerce market in Nigeria is experiencing significant growth, with both local and international companies entering the market. One of the major trends in the market is the emergence of super apps, which offer a range of services, including Q-commerce, food delivery, and ride-hailing. These super apps are becoming increasingly popular among Nigerian consumers who are looking for a one-stop-shop for all their needs.Another trend in the market is the increasing use of drones for delivery. Drones offer a faster and more efficient way to deliver products, especially in congested urban areas. Companies are also exploring the use of autonomous vehicles for delivery, which could further improve delivery times and reduce costs.

Local special circumstances: Nigeria is a unique market with its own set of challenges and opportunities. One of the major challenges in the Q-commerce market is the lack of reliable and efficient logistics infrastructure. The country's poor road network and inadequate transportation systems make it difficult for companies to deliver products quickly and efficiently.Additionally, Nigeria has a large informal sector, which poses a challenge for companies that are looking to establish a formal presence in the market. Many consumers in Nigeria still prefer to shop at local markets and street vendors, which offer lower prices and a more personalized shopping experience.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Nigeria's economy has been growing steadily over the past few years, with a focus on diversification away from oil. The country's large population and growing middle class present a significant opportunity for Q-commerce companies. Additionally, the increasing use of smartphones and the internet has created a favorable environment for the growth of the Q-commerce market.However, Nigeria still faces challenges such as high inflation rates, currency devaluation, and political instability. These challenges could potentially impact the growth of the Q-commerce market in the country.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.