Commodities - Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe

The nominal value in Eastern Europe's Commodities market is forecasted to reach US$2,921.00bn in 2024.
It is anticipated to demonstrate an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 3.42%, resulting in a projected total amount of US$3,342.00bn by 2028.
The average price per contract in the Commodities market stands at US$0.01 in 2024.
When compared globally, the in the United States records the highest nominal value (US$45,690.00bn in 2024) in the Commodities market.
The number of contracts in the Commodities market is expected to reach 490.60m by 2028.
In Eastern Europe, Ukraine is experiencing a surge in trading of commodity futures, reflecting growing investor interest in the region's market potential.

Market

Region

Region comparison

Currency

Analyst Opinion

The Commodities market in Eastern Europe is experiencing a notable shift in dynamics, reflecting the evolving economic landscape of the region. Customer preferences in the Eastern European Commodities market are increasingly leaning towards more diverse investment options, driven by a growing interest in risk management and portfolio diversification.

Investors are showing a preference for Commodities as a way to hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, aligning with global trends in the financial markets. Trends in the Eastern European Commodities market indicate a rising demand for energy-related derivatives, especially in countries rich in natural resources like oil and gas. This trend is influenced by both local production capabilities and external factors such as global supply and demand dynamics.

Additionally, there is a noticeable increase in trading volumes for agricultural Commodities, reflecting the importance of the agricultural sector in the region's economy. Local special circumstances in Eastern Europe, such as political stability and regulatory frameworks, play a significant role in shaping the Commodities market. Countries with well-established financial markets and clear regulations tend to attract more foreign investment, leading to increased liquidity and market efficiency.

On the other hand, regions facing political uncertainties may experience higher volatility and risk premiums in their Commodities market. Underlying macroeconomic factors, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and exchange rate movements, also impact the Eastern European Commodities market. Economic growth in the region drives demand for Commodities as inputs for various industries, while inflation rates influence investors' decisions to allocate their assets in Commodities as a hedge against rising prices.

Exchange rate fluctuations can create arbitrage opportunities in the market, attracting both local and foreign investors.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.