Skilled labor force with low migration Germany 2040

According to the report from the German Institute of Economics, from 2020 to 2040 there will be a decrease in the number of available workers. In 2020, there were 43.5 million people able to work but by 2040, this figure is predicted to decline to 37.2 million. These projections are based on a scenario of low immigration.

Forecast of the number of skilled workers in Germany from 2020 to 2040 (in millions, scenario: low immigration)

Characteristic	Professionally qualified	Academics
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Release date

April 2021

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Region

Germany

Survey time period

2021

Supplementary notes

The source gives two age ranges for people who are of the age to be able to work (20 to 64 and 20 to 69 years old). The figures in this statistic refer to people aged between 20 and 69.

The source provides three different scenarios regarding the future migration balance which can be used to derive various forecasts for the development of the supply of skilled workers in Germany. The basis scenario presented here is from a low migration balance: the Institute expects a decrease in net migrations from 386,000 in 2018 to 110,500 in 2026 and for it to remain at this figure.

According to the source, figures are based on the calculation of the population from the Statistisches Bundesamt (2019).

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