Probability of success to market for active pharmaceutical substances as of 2015

Probability of success for active substances to the market 2015 This statistic displays the probability of success for active substances into the market as of 2015. Active substances that are considered 'first patient dose' to market have a 17 percent probability of success. Approximately half of the launches consist of specialty drugs for treatment of cancer, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and HIV. New molecular entities have a active moiety that have yet to be approved by the FDA or marketed in the United States.
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Probability of success
'First toxicity dose' to market5%
'First human dose' to market7%
'First patient dose' to market17%
'First pivotal dose' to market65%
'First submission' to market91%
Probability of success
'First toxicity dose' to market5%
'First human dose' to market7%
'First patient dose' to market17%
'First pivotal dose' to market65%
'First submission' to market91%
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This statistic displays the probability of success for active substances into the market as of 2015. Active substances that are considered 'first patient dose' to market have a 17 percent probability of success. Approximately half of the launches consist of specialty drugs for treatment of cancer, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and HIV. New molecular entities have a active moiety that have yet to be approved by the FDA or marketed in the United States.
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Release date
August 2015
Region
Worldwide
Survey time period
as of 2015
Supplementary notes
Probabilities of success to market were calculated using success rates between phase for active substances entering phase between 2008 and 2010 and year of assessment 2013.

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