Cannabis - NAFTA

  • NAFTA
  • Revenue in the Cannabis market is projected to reach US$51.34bn in 2024.
  • Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 3.09%, resulting in a market volume of US$59.79bn by 2029.
  • In global comparison, most revenue will be generated in the United States (US$42.98bn in 2024).
  • In relation to total population figures, per person revenues of US$289.00 are generated in 2024.

Key regions: United States, Canada, Netherlands, Germany, Thailand

 
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Analyst Opinion

The Cannabis market in NAFTA has been experiencing significant growth and evolution in recent years.

Customer preferences:
Consumers in the NAFTA region have shown a growing interest in cannabis products for both medicinal and recreational purposes. The increasing acceptance and legalization of cannabis in certain member countries have led to a shift in consumer preferences towards a wider variety of products, including edibles, topicals, and concentrates. As a result, there is a rising demand for diverse and innovative cannabis offerings to cater to the evolving tastes of customers.

Trends in the market:
In the United States, the largest market within NAFTA, the trend towards legalization at the state level has created a patchwork of regulations that vary across different regions. This has led to a complex market landscape with opportunities for both small craft producers and large corporations to thrive. Additionally, the Canadian market has been experiencing growth following the nationwide legalization of recreational cannabis, with a focus on quality and compliance to meet consumer expectations. Mexico, on the other hand, is in the process of legalizing cannabis, presenting a significant opportunity for market expansion and investment in the region.

Local special circumstances:
Each country within NAFTA has its unique set of circumstances influencing the cannabis market. In the United States, the state-by-state legalization has created a diverse market with varying regulations and consumer preferences. Canada's early nationwide legalization has allowed the country to establish itself as a global leader in cannabis production and export. Mexico's move towards legalization is driven by changing perceptions of cannabis and the potential economic benefits it can bring, making it a key market to watch for future developments in the industry.

Underlying macroeconomic factors:
The growth of the cannabis market in NAFTA is also influenced by macroeconomic factors such as job creation, tax revenue generation, and international trade opportunities. The cannabis industry has the potential to create jobs in cultivation, retail, research, and ancillary services, contributing to economic growth in the region. Furthermore, the taxation of cannabis sales provides governments with additional revenue sources to fund public programs and services. The potential for international trade in cannabis products among NAFTA countries could further boost the market and create opportunities for collaboration and growth on a regional scale.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Data encompasses B2B and B2C enterprises. Figures are based on companies' revenues, funding values and global consumer survey data. Revenues include retail, sales and taxes.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Top-Down approach, based on a specific rationale for each market market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party data. Next, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations such as tobacco spending per capita, medical product spending per capita, consumer spending and consumer spending for recreation purposes, population. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. For example, S-Curve function, ARIMA time series model and exponential curve function.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

Overview

  • Revenue
  • Users
  • Analyst Opinion
  • Global Comparison
  • Methodology
  • Key Market Indicators
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