The Mobility Market Outlook provides information about passenger cars, including small, medium, executive, and luxury cars as well as SUVs, minivans, and sports cars. However, motorcycles, buses, trucks, large vans, and light utility vehicles are not included. The market's segmentation is based on several factors, including physical properties (weight, volume, wheelbase) and economic factors (pricing, status, etc.). All key figures shown represent the sales of new cars in the basic configuration in the respective year. Used vehicles are not taken into account, nor is adapted equipment for the new cars sold. The prices and revenues shown as well as the distribution of connectivity, drive types, autonomy levels, and average CO2 emissions are accordingly based on the basic models.
Motorcycles, Buses and Trucks
Commercial Vans (included for the U.S. market only)
Since its invention in the 20th century, the passenger car has transformed the way people move and impacted societies and economies all over the world. Today, the private car is a staple of modern societies, providing independence and freedom of mobility to the masses. China and the United States make up approximately 50% of the total global revenue generated by the Passenger Cars market, with Europe being just slightly behind the two. Sales numbers for passenger cars peaked in 2017. This was followed by a decline that was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, sales numbers are rather stagnant, and we expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future.
As private cars are one of the biggest producers of carbon emissions, the transition away from traditional combustion engines is the main challenge for car manufacturers. Today, electric vehicles are seen as the next step in the industry’s evolution, with companies such as Tesla focusing solely on electric vehicles and traditional manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Ford, and Toyota also gearing up to produce more electric models. Lawmakers across the globe are planning to impose bans on combustion engines to enforce this transition. Further major challenges for the industry are the increasing demand for and the associated shortage of microprocessors across all industries, which are needed to produce cars with smart features.
The past two years have taken their toll on the automotive industry. The pandemic as well as the Russia-Ukraine war have heavily impacted supply chains across the globe, slowing down the production of passenger cars and forcing manufacturers to temporarily close production lines. Additionally, economic challenges such as inflation are affecting demand, as people are postponing large purchases such as cars. However, we believe that the market will see a slow but steady recovery in the coming years.
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the sales of new passenger cars. Data on the specifications of the sold vehicles is based on the base models of the respective makes.
Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use company reports and websites, vehicle registries, car dealers, and environment agencies among other sources. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP and car stock per capita. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, we use the ARIMA model for the Passenger Cars market. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development).