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Projected U.S. opioid overdose deaths from 2016-2025 under select scenarios 2019

Projected number of overdose deaths from prescription and illicit opioids in the United States from 2016 to 2025 for select scenarios as of 2019*

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Release date

February 2019


United States

Survey time period

as of 2019

Supplementary notes

All figures are projections.
* "The base-case scenario assumed that the opioid overdose crisis will stabilize by 2020 (ie, the incidence of illicit opioids as the initiating opioid and the overdose mortality rate attributable to illicit opioids would increase at the rate observed in preceding years, but would stabilize by 2020). The pessimistic scenario assumed that the opioid overdose crisis would not stabilize until 2025."

** "Results of number of OD deaths from prescription opioids in the pessimistic scenario are the same as those in the base-case scenario, because the changes of assumptions in incidences and overdose mortality from illicit opioids would not affect the outcomes of the population using prescription opioids with and without opioid use disorder."

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