Crude oil production forecast in the CIS 2019-2050

Crude oil production volume in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) from 2019 to 2050, by scenario

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Release date

January 2023


Asia, Europe

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Supplementary notes

*Forecast. The scenarios were defined as follows:
"The scenarios were largely prepared before the outbreak of military action in Ukraine and do not include any analysis of its possible implications for economic growth and global energy markets.

The scenarios consider carbon emissions from energy production and use, most non-energy related industrial processes, and natural gas flaring plus methane emissions from the production, transmission and distribution of fossil fuels.

Accelerated and Net Zero explore how different elements of the energy system might change in order to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. They are conditioned on the assumption that there is a significant tightening of climate policies leading to a pronounced and sustained fall in CO₂- equivalent (CO₂e) emissions. The fall in emissions in Net Zero is aided by a shift in societal behavior and preferences which further supports gains in energy efficiency and the adoption of low-carbon energy sources.

New Momentum is designed to capture the broad trajectory along which the global energy system is currently progressing. It places weight both on the marked increase in global ambition for decarbonization seen in recent years and the likelihood that those aims and ambitions will be achieved, and on the manner and speed of progress seen over the recent past.

CO₂e emissions in all three scenarios increase above pre-Covid levels. Emissions in Accelerated and Net Zero peak in the early 2020s and by 2050 are around 75% and 95% below 2019 levels respectively. CO₂e emissions in New Momentum peak in the late 2020s and by 2050 are around 20% below 2019 levels."

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