Nitrogen demand by end-use and scenario 2020-2050

Worldwide demand for nitrogen is projected to increase from 2020 to 2050 across all energy scenarios, however, this increase is considerably less pronounced within the STEPS scenario compared to the SDP and NZE scenarios. In the NZE scenario, additional demand for nitrogen is created through specific end-use sectors such as maritime fuel and power generation, with a projected demand of 203 million metric tons and 70 million metric tons, respectively, by 2050.

Demand for nitrogen worldwide in 2020, with a forecast for 2030 to 2050, by end-use and scenario (in million metric tons)

End-use	Urea-based fertilizer	Non-urea-based fertilizer	Non-fertilizer	Maritime fuel	Power generation
2020	72	36	44	-	-
2030: STEPS*	84	42	52	-	-
2050: STEPS*	96	48	64	-	-
2030: SDS**	75	44	50	5	2
2050: SDS**	51	79	57	106	51
2030: NZE**	75	44	50	31	44
2050: NZE**	51	79	57	203	70

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Release date

October 2021

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2020

Supplementary notes

*The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is a scenario that reflects the impact of existing policies and announced policy intentions on the future of energy and climate.

**The Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) is a scenario that outlines a major transformation of the global energy system, aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, universal energy access and reducing air pollution.

***The net zero emissions by 2050 scenario (NZE) is a pathway that outlines how the global energy sector can achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. It focuses on reducing emissions within the energy sector itself, without relying on emissions reductions from other sectors. Additionally, it aims to achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking by the year 2030.

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