Economic impact on small island nations due to sea level rise 2020-2150

Published by
Erick BurgueƱo Salas,
Feb 19, 2024

By the middle of the 21st century, the projected economic impact on the members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise will reach almost 13 billion U.S. dollars, representing a fivefold increase compared to 2020 levels. Following the worst case scenario (SSP5-8.5), the average annual damages from coastal flooding in AOSIS members could reach almost 45 billion U.S. dollars by 2150.

Projected direct economic impacts on the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise from 2020 to 2150, by scenario (in billion U.S. dollars)

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Release date

October 2023

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2020

Special properties

For more information on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), go to supplementary notes

Supplementary notes

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP):

SSP1-1.9: very low GHG emissions - COā‚‚ emissions cut to net zero around 2050.
SSP1-2.6: low GHG emissions - COā‚‚ emissions cut to net zero around 2075.
SSP2-4.5: intermediate GHG emissions - COā‚‚ emissions around current levels until 2050, then falling but not reaching net zero by 2100:
SSP3-7.0: high GHG emissions - COā‚‚ emissions double by 2100.
SSP5-8.5: very high GHG emissions - COā‚‚ emissions triple by 2075.

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