Global oil products demand outlook 2020-2045

The majority of oil demand is expected to be aimed towards light products, such as gasoline and ethane. In 2045, gasoline demand is forecast to climb to 27.1 million barrels per day. By comparison, daily diesel and gasoil demand is expected to reach 29.6 million barrels, the most of any oil product listed here. The consumption of liquid fuels was severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, declining by nearly twenty percent in the span of two months in early 2020. As many governments scrambled to implement travel restrictions, the aviation industry was hit particularly hard. Demand for jet fuel and kerosene is expected to have decreased by some 40 percent between 2019 and 2020.

The use of petroleum products in daily life

Crude oil serves as a feedstock for a great variety of industrial products. While transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel are the most common examples used when referring to petroleum products, synthetic materials such as plastic packaging and many pharmaceutical drugs are also oil- and natural gas-based. In 2019, the global market value of petrochemicals stood at an estimated 441 billion U.S. dollars and was forecast to grow to over 650 billion U.S. dollars by 2027. In a world where convenience often trumps the more environmentally friendly choice, petroleum products, particularly of the non-heavy variety, are expected to continue being in high demand.

Oil production value by 2040

Depending on the content of stimulus packages following the pandemic, the oil and gas production value may look decidedly different in the coming years. In the “2020 stated policy scenario”, which followed governmental policies that had been decided up until that year, oil production would value at 12.8 trillion U.S. dollars by 2040. In the “2020 sustainable development scenario”, which would see governments adhering to sustainability and emission goals set by the UN, oil production would be worth only 8.7 trillion U.S. dollars.