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GDP forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum scenario
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GDP forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum scenario
GDP forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum, by scenario
This graph shows a four year GDP forecast for the United Kingdom (UK) under three different scenarios. In the eventuality that the UK remains in the EU after the 2017 referendum, there would be an increase of 1.4 percent GDP. However, in the contrasting scenario whereby UK exits the EU, it is expected that there would be an initial decrease of 0.5 percent. The source forecasts that by 2019, the end result under each scenario would end within 0.6 percent of each other.
GDP forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum, by scenario
| GDP (%YoY) – no referendum | GDP – UK remains in EU | GDP – UK leaves EU | |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| GDP (%YoY) – no referendum | GDP – UK remains in EU | GDP – UK leaves EU | |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
| - | - | - | - |
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This graph shows a four year GDP forecast for the United Kingdom (UK) under three different scenarios. In the eventuality that the UK remains in the EU after the 2017 referendum, there would be an increase of 1.4 percent GDP. However, in the contrasting scenario whereby UK exits the EU, it is expected that there would be an initial decrease of 0.5 percent. The source forecasts that by 2019, the end result under each scenario would end within 0.6 percent of each other.
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- Release date
- February 2015
- Region
- United Kingdom
- Survey time period
- February 5, 2015
Source
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- As a Premium user you get access to the detailed source references and background information about this statistic.
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- Release date
- February 2015
More information
- Region
- United Kingdom
- Survey time period
- February 5, 2015
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Statistics on "EU membership referendum in the United Kingdom (UK)"
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- Financial forecasts
The most important statistics
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- Forecasted Bank of England (BoE) policy rate under different UK referendum scenarios for EU exit 2016-2019, by scenarioForecasted BoE policy rate under different UK/EU referendum scenarios 2016-2019
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- Forecasted losses in UK total exports by main EU market in a post Brexit scenario as of 2015 (in billion GBP)Post-Brexit: forecasted losses in UK total exports by main EU market 2015
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- Forecasted change in GDP for selected European countries in 2030 as a result of the UK leaving the EU, by scenario*Potential effect on GDP if the UK exits the EU
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- General public opinion and expectations
The most important statistics
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The most important statistics
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- Public prediction of the EU referendum result in Great Britain (GB), by past votePredicted result of the EU referendum in Great Britain (GB) 2016, by past vote
- Business perception
The most important statistics
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- If there was a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU tomorrow, what result would be the best for your business?SMMT member opinions on United Kingdom membership in the EU 2104
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The most important statistics
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- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your industry's employment levels?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect industry employment levels UK 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's revenue?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company revenues in the UK 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's investment levels?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company investment levels UK 2016
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's employment levels?Business perspective: how Brexit would affect company employment levels UK 2016
- What impact would the withdrawal from the EU have on your business?Perceived impact on small business if the UK withdraws from the EU 2015
- What impact would remaining in EU have on your business?Perceived impact on small business if the UK remains within the EU 2015
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Further Content: Statistics, Studies, and Topic Pages
Statistics
- Levels of support for a second referendum on the terms of Brexit in 2018
- Perceived knowledge levels of undecided EU referendum voters in the UK 2015
- Regret among leave vote balloters after the EU referendum in the UK in 2016
- UK spending expectations post-EU referendum 2017, by category and referendum vote
- Perceived effect of the EU referendum on tax over the next 5 years in the UK in 2016
- Concerns of 55-64 year olds post Brexit in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016
- Regret among remain vote balloters after the EU referendum in the UK in 2016
- Perceptions on if Brexit is going badly or not in Great Britain 2018
- Forecasted losses from WTO tariffs UK in Belgium 2019, by export sector
- Perception of the impact of Brexit on the EU and UK economy 2016
- Transport and storage sector volume forecast change in the Netherlands 2014-2019
- Retail sector turnover forecast change in the Netherlands 2017-2019
- DIY shops turnover forecast change in the Netherlands 2015-2017
- Great Britain survey on government competence regarding Brexit final deal, 2017
- United Kingdom opinion: seeking to stay in the EU if Brexit deal is rejected, by age
- Estimated GDP loss by 2030 in a no-deal Brexit scenario
- Public opinion poll on Brexit in the Netherlands 2016-2018
- EU marketing and creative industry professionals leaving the UK due to Brexit 2017
- Overall score of Kuwait on the Economic Freedom Index ranking 1998-2018
Topics
Studies
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- British Politics
Statistics on "EU membership referendum in the United Kingdom (UK)"
- Results of United Kingdom (UK) EU referendum on June 23, 2016
- Results of United Kingdom (UK) EU 'Brexit' referendum on June 23, 2016
- EU referendum results of the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016, by nation
- EU referendum voter turnout in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016, by region
- Number of verified ballot papers in the during the EU referendum in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016, by region
- Number of valid votes cast during the EU referendum of the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23rd, 2016, by region
- Number of ballot papers counted during the EU referendum of the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23rd, 2016, by region
- Number of rejected ballots from the EU referendum in the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23rd, 2016, by region
- Number of citizens entitled to cast a vote during the EU referendum in the United Kingdom (UK) on June 23rd, 2016, by region
- EU referendum voting intention in the United Kingdom (UK) from January to June 2016
- Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
- Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
- Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
- Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
- How do you intend to vote in response to the question: should the United Kingdom exit the EU?
- How do you intend to vote in response to the question: should the United Kingdom exit the EU?
- How do you intend to vote in response to the question: should the United Kingdom exit the EU?
- How do you intend to vote in response to the question: should the United Kingdom exit the EU?
- Based upon the information you know today, how would you vote?
- If you were eligible at the time, how did you vote in the UK European Economic Community membership referendum in 1975?
- Perceived likelihood of British citizens voting in the EU referendum in the Great Britain as of 2015
- Perceived likelihood of British citizens voting in the EU referendum in Great Britain as of 2016, by age
- Perceived likelihood of British citizens voting in the EU referendum in Great Britain as of 2016, by region
- A referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union is likely to be held in either 2016 or 2017. If the referendum were to be held tomorrow, do you think you would...
- A referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union is likely to be held in either 2016 or 2017. If the referendum were to be held tomorrow, do you think you would...
- When the referendum is held on 23rd June 2016, will you vote?
- When the referendum is held on 23rd June 2016, will you vote?
- When the referendum is held on 23rd June 2016, will you vote?
- United Kingdom: Which of the following best describes how you feel about the EU debate at this time?
- Public confidence levels in David Cameron to get a good deal for the UK in the EU referendum
- Public opinion: Is it the right time to hold a referendum on the EU?
- Out of the following, if any, who will be important to you in deciding how to vote in the referendum on European Union membership? Please choose all that apply
- How well informed do you feel about the forthcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the EU?
- How well informed do you feel about the forthcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the EU?
- GDP forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum, by scenario
- CPI forecast profiles under different UK referendum to stay or exit the EU from 2016 to 2019, by scenario
- Forecasted Bank of England (BoE) policy rate under different UK referendum scenarios for EU exit 2016-2019, by scenario
- Forecasted Euro (EUR) to Pound sterling (GBP) exchange rate profiles under Brexit referendum from 2016 to 2019*, by scenario
- Forecasted losses in UK total exports by main EU market in a post Brexit scenario as of 2015 (in billion GBP)
- Forecasted losses in United Kingdom (UK) total exports in a post-Brexit scenario 2015, by scenario and economic sector (in billion GBP)
- Forecasted change in GDP for selected European countries in 2030 as a result of the UK leaving the EU, by scenario*
- Forecasted change in UK travel and tourism arrivals from 2015 to 2016 as a result of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the EU, by scenario
- Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
- Public prediction of the EU referendum result in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2016, by age
- Public prediction of the EU referendum result in Great Britain as of 2016, by employment status and gender
- United Kingdom: What is the UK’s membership of the EU beneficial for?
- Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on British jobs if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
- Do you think it would have a good or bad effect on the NHS if the UK left the European Union?
- Do you think your household will be better or worse off financially if Britain leaves the European Union?
- Would there be a good or a bad effect on people’s pensions if the UK left the European Union?
- Do you think Britain would be more or less at risk from terrorism if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
- Do you think Britain would have more or less influence in the world if we left the European Union, or would it make no difference?
- Would you personally be better or worse off if the UK left the European Union?
- In what form would you like the UK to leave the EU?
- In what form would you like the UK to leave the EU?
- In what form would you like the UK to remain a member of the EU?
- United Kingdom: to what extent do you agree or disagree with Britain’s membership of the EU being beneficial for the nation?
- United Kingdom: to what extent do you agree or disagree with Britain’s membership of the EU being beneficial for your business?
- In the upcoming referendum, do you think the UK will vote to...
- Perceived personal financial benefits of leaving the EU in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2016, by age and gender
- Perceived personal financial benefits of leaving the EU by the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2016, by region
- Perceived personal financial benefits of leaving the EU in the United Kingdom (UK) 2016, by employment and gender
- United Kingdom (UK) public opinion: to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following? The Britain’s membership of the EU is beneficial for the economy
- British public's perceived personal and financial benefits of leaving the EU in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2016, by age
- Public prediction of the EU referendum result in Great Britain (GB) in 2016, by age and gender
- Public prediction of the EU referendum result in Great Britain (GB), by past vote
- Public prediction of the EU referendum result in Great Britain (GB) in 2016, by social grade
- Perceived financial outcome if the United Kingdom (UK) leaves the EU in Great Britain (GB) in 2016, by social grade
- Perceived financial outcome if the United Kingdom (UK) leaves the EU in Great Britain (GB) in 2016, by social class and gender
- Perceived personal financial benefits of leaving the EU in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2016, by parenthood and gender
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your country's employment levels?
- Share of opinion on the possible effect Brexit would have on the UK National Health Service (NHS) in 2016
- Perceived knowledge levels of the EU referendum by small business owners in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2015
- Perceived knowledge levels of EU referendum from a business perspective in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2015
- Perceived knowledge levels of UK/EU referendum from a business perspective in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2015, by nation
- Perceived benefits of the UK's membership in EU for small business in the United Kingdom (UK) as of 2015
- Small business: based upon the information you know today, how would you vote in the EU referendum?
- Should the UK leave the European Union?*
- If there was a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU tomorrow, what result would be the best for your business?
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your industry's revenue?
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your industry's investment levels?
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your industry's employment levels?
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's revenue?
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's investment levels?
- In the three years after an exit, how would Brexit affect your company's employment levels?
- What impact would the withdrawal from the EU have on your business?
- What impact would remaining in EU have on your business?
- What impact would withdrawal from the EU have on your business?
- What impact would the UK remaining in the EU have on your business?
- What impact would the UK remaining in the EU have on your business?
- What impact would the UK withdrawal from the EU have on your business?
- Once the Brexit negotiations are complete and the terms of Britain's exit from the EU have been agreed, do you think there should or should not be a referendum to accept or reject them?
- How well informed do you feel about the forthcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the EU?
- Now that the result has been announced, do you regret voting leave in the EU referendum?
- Share of consumers who believe that Brexit will have a positive impact on their spending in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2017, by category and referendum vote
- How do you think the UK leaving the EU will affect the amount of tax you pay over the next five years?
- Main concerns of 55 to 64 year olds following the United Kingdom's (UK) vote to leave the European Union
- Now that the result has been announced, do you regret voting remain in the EU referendum?
- Which of the following comes closest to your view on how well Brexit is going?*
- Sectors with the biggest forecasted export losses in Belgium in 2019 in the event of a no-deal Brexit scenario
- Percentage distribution of the perception of the impact of Brexit on the economy of the European Union and the United Kingdom to June 2016
- Percentage change on previous year of the transport and storage sector volume in the Netherlands from 2014 to 2017, with a forecast for 2018 and 2019
- Percentage change on previous year of the retail sector turnover in the Netherlands in 2017, with a forecast for 2018 and 2019*
- Forecast of the percentage change on previous year of the DIY shops turnover in the Netherlands from 2015 to 2017*
- Opinion in Great Britain in 2017 on which administrative establishment should have the final say in the Brexit deal
- Should Britain have a referendum on the EU exit deal it negotiates, and seek to remain in the EU if the proposed new deal is rejected?
- Estimated loss to gross domestic product (GDP) in a no-deal Brexit scenario by 2030, by country
- Are you happy or disappointed that the British voted in favor of the Brexit?*
- Share of EU nationals working in the marketing and creative industries who considered leaving the United Kingdom (UK) because of Brexit as of December 2017
- Overall score of Kuwait on the Economic Freedom Index ranking from 1998 to 2018
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