GDP forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum scenario

This graph shows a four year GDP forecast for the United Kingdom (UK) under three different scenarios. In the eventuality that the UK remains in the EU after the 2017 referendum, there would be an increase of 1.4 percent GDP. However, in the contrasting scenario whereby UK exits the EU, it is expected that there would be an initial decrease of 0.5 percent. The source forecasts that by 2019, the end result under each scenario would end within 0.6 percent of each other.

GDP forecast profiles under different UK/EU referendum, by scenario

GDP (%YoY) – no referendum GDP – UK remains in EU GDP – UK leaves EU
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Release date

February 2015


United Kingdom

Survey time period

February 5, 2015

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Statistics on "EU membership referendum in the United Kingdom (UK)"

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