Wine - Ethiopia

The Wine market in Ethiopia is experiencing significant growth and development in recent years. Customer preferences are shifting towards wine consumption, leading to an increase in demand for both domestic and imported wines. This trend can be attributed to several factors, including changing lifestyles, increasing disposable income, and a growing appreciation for wine culture and sophistication.

Customer preferences: Ethiopian consumers are increasingly embracing wine as a beverage of choice. Traditionally, beer and spirits have been the preferred alcoholic beverages in the country. However, there has been a shift in consumer preferences towards wine, driven by a desire for a more sophisticated and refined drinking experience. Wine is seen as a symbol of elegance and class, and consumers are willing to pay a premium for high-quality wines.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Ethiopian wine market is the rise of domestic wine production. Local wineries are emerging and producing wines that cater to the taste preferences of Ethiopian consumers. These wines are often made from locally grown grapes, giving them a unique flavor profile that resonates with the local market. This trend is fueled by the government's support for the development of the local wine industry and the promotion of domestic products. Another trend in the market is the increasing popularity of imported wines. Ethiopian consumers are becoming more adventurous in their wine choices and are exploring wines from different regions around the world. Importers and distributors are capitalizing on this trend by offering a wide range of imported wines, catering to different taste preferences and price points.

Local special circumstances: Ethiopia has a rich cultural heritage and a long history of winemaking. The country's unique climate and soil conditions make it suitable for grape cultivation, and wine production has been a part of Ethiopian culture for centuries. This cultural heritage and tradition play a significant role in shaping the local wine market, as consumers have a strong affinity for locally produced wines.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the wine market in Ethiopia can also be attributed to underlying macroeconomic factors. The country has been experiencing steady economic growth, leading to an increase in disposable income among the middle class. As a result, consumers have more purchasing power and are willing to spend on luxury goods, including wine. Additionally, urbanization and globalization have exposed Ethiopian consumers to different cultures and lifestyles, leading to a greater appreciation for wine and its associated values. In conclusion, the Wine market in Ethiopia is experiencing a period of growth and development. Customer preferences are shifting towards wine consumption, driven by changing lifestyles, increasing disposable income, and a growing appreciation for wine culture. Domestic wine production is on the rise, catering to the taste preferences of Ethiopian consumers, while imported wines are also gaining popularity. The unique cultural heritage and underlying macroeconomic factors further contribute to the growth of the wine market in Ethiopia.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.