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Public Transportation - South Africa

South Africa

The Public Transportation market in South Africa is anticipated to witness a rise in revenue, with an estimated value of US$0.94bn by 2024.
This is projected to grow annually by -0.27% (CAGR 2024-2028), resulting in a market volume of US$0.93bn by 2028.
The number of users in this market is expected to reach 25.29m users by 2028, with a user penetration of 40.3% in 2024 and 39.8% by 2028.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is forecasted to be US$38.25.
Online sales are expected to contribute to 20% of the total revenue by 2028.
It is interesting to note that United States is expected to generate the highest revenue in the Public Transportation market, with a projected value of US$50,310m by 2024, in global comparison.
South Africa's public transportation system faces challenges due to inadequate infrastructure and high levels of crime.

Key regions: United States, Indonesia, China, Saudi Arabia, Europe

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Analyst Opinion

The Public Transportation market in South Africa is experiencing significant growth and development.

Customer preferences: Customers in South Africa are increasingly opting for public transportation due to several factors. Firstly, the rising cost of owning and maintaining a private vehicle has made public transportation a more affordable option for many people. Additionally, the growing awareness about environmental sustainability has led to a shift towards greener modes of transportation, such as buses and trains. Furthermore, the convenience and efficiency of public transportation systems, especially in urban areas, have made them a preferred choice for commuting.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the South African public transportation market is the expansion and modernization of existing infrastructure. The government has been investing heavily in upgrading and expanding the country's public transportation networks, including the construction of new railway lines and the introduction of high-speed trains. This trend is aimed at improving connectivity, reducing travel times, and enhancing overall passenger experience. Another important trend is the integration of technology in public transportation services. Mobile ticketing, real-time tracking systems, and digital payment options are becoming increasingly common, making it easier for passengers to access and use public transportation. This trend is not only improving the customer experience but also helping to streamline operations and increase efficiency for public transportation providers.

Local special circumstances: South Africa has a unique set of circumstances that influence the development of its public transportation market. The country has a large urban population, with major cities experiencing high levels of congestion. This has created a strong demand for efficient and reliable public transportation options. Additionally, South Africa has a significant number of low-income households who rely on public transportation as their primary mode of travel. As a result, there is a need for affordable and accessible public transportation services that cater to the needs of these communities.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth and development of the public transportation market in South Africa are also influenced by several macroeconomic factors. The country's economic growth and urbanization have led to an increase in the demand for transportation services. Additionally, government initiatives to promote sustainable development and reduce carbon emissions have created a favorable environment for the expansion of public transportation infrastructure. Furthermore, the ongoing investment in public transportation projects is not only creating job opportunities but also contributing to the overall economic development of the country. In conclusion, the Public Transportation market in South Africa is experiencing significant growth and development due to customer preferences for affordable and sustainable transportation options, as well as government initiatives to improve infrastructure and promote economic development. The expansion and modernization of public transportation networks, the integration of technology, and the unique local circumstances are all contributing to the positive trends in the market.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and online shares of public transportation.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party studies and reports, federal statistical offices, industry associations, and price data. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as demographic data, GDP, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device usage. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.