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Impact of COVID-19 on projected inflation in East Africa in 2020 and 2021

As of April 2020, the projections for the inflation rate in East Africa were revised up due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In a worst-case scenario, when the virus persists through the end of 2020, the projected inflation for the region in the same year was measured at 18 percent. Before the outbreak, the outlook was at 14.2 percent. Under the same scenario, the projection for 2021 was reviewed to 16 percent.

East Africa has the highest inflation rate on the continent, mainly to currency devaluation on domestic prices in Sudan, monetization of fiscal deficits and reduced agricultural productivity because of poor rainfall. The COVID-19 pandemic is expect to worsen the situation. As of September 2020, the number of coronavirus cases in the region amounted to more than 151 thousand.

Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on projected inflation in East Africa in 2020 and 2021

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Source

Release date

July 2020

Region

Africa

Survey time period

2020 and 2021

Supplementary notes

Projections as of April, 2020.
Assumptions:
1) Baseline scenario: pandemic subsides in July 2020
2) Worst scenario: pandemic continues to December

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Statistics on "Coronavirus (COVID-19) in East Africa"

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