Africa: population exposure to heat waves 2050

Considering a moderate emissions scenario, most of Africa's countries will likely have their entire population exposed to heat waves by 2050. According to the source estimates, exposure to heat waves will be lower in South Africa (45 percent) and Morocco (15 percent).

Estimated population exposure to heat waves in Africa in 2050, by country

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Release date

April 2022

More information

Region

Africa

Survey time period

2050

Special properties

estimates under a moderate emissions scenario

Supplementary notes

According to the source, estimates considering a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5) "consistent with a future of relatively ambitious emissions reductions with a slight rise to 2040 and then a decline. This scenario falls short of the Paris Agreement aim of limiting global temperature rise to “well below” 2°C, with a projected average temperature increase of 1.8°C (likely range 1.1°C to 2.6°C)".

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