Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to drop by almost 30 percent by 2050, relative to 2020 levels, to roughly 8.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GTCO₂e).
According to World Data Lab, agriculture emissions would drop to less than five GTCO₂e by 2050 in a scenario where countries fully implement the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) they made to fight climate change.
Projected agriculture-related greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario
(in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)
figures include livestock, crops, and land use change.
Supplementary notes
Business as usual - Depicts a scenario without drastic deviations in technology advancement or policy-making from past experiences. While there is typically still some technological progress in the form of reducing emissions intensities (stemming e.g. from energy efficiency gains) that are partly a result of policy actions, this scenario does not take into account announced policy pledges.
Do as we promised - Depicts a scenario where countries (or regions) fully implement their announced policies written down in their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). More ambitious climate action plans pursued by individual countries that are not part of the NDC (of the country itself or the submitting party) are not reflected on the WEC to retain consistency across countries. Hence, here the “we” in “Do as we promised” refers to countries or regions fulfilling their pledges in their NDCs.
We achieve the goal - Depicts a scenario outlining pathways for countries and sectors that are consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius compared to pre-industrial times in 2100 as per the Paris agreement from 2015. The trajectories are derived under a global cost efficiency perspective, i.e. they outline the most cost-effective way of achieving the goal of 1.5 degree Celsius. They are not meant to reflect fair-share considerations based on e.g. cumulative historical emissions. Here, the “we” in “We achieve the goal” refers to the world achieving a global goal.
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World Data Lab. (March 24, 2023). Projected agriculture-related greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved October 05, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1423235/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-agriculture/
World Data Lab. "Projected agriculture-related greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)." Chart. March 24, 2023. Statista. Accessed October 05, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1423235/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-agriculture/
World Data Lab. (2023). Projected agriculture-related greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: October 05, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1423235/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-agriculture/
World Data Lab. "Projected Agriculture-related Greenhouse Gas Emissions Worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by Scenario (in Billion Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent)." Statista, Statista Inc., 24 Mar 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1423235/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-agriculture/
World Data Lab, Projected agriculture-related greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1423235/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-agriculture/ (last visited October 05, 2024)
Projected agriculture-related greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph], World Data Lab, March 24, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1423235/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-agriculture/