Global GHG emissions gap by scenario 2030-2050

The median estimate of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 under current policies is 56 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e). This results in an emissions gap of 16 GtCO₂e consistent with limiting global warming to below two degrees Celsius. If the unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the below two degrees Celsius emissions gap would be reduced to 14 GtCO₂e. The full implementation of the conditional NDCs would reduce the emissions gap by a further three GtCO₂e.

Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)

Year and scenario	GHG emissions	Estimated gap for below 2°C	Estimated gap for beow 1.8°C	Estimated gap for below 1.5°C
2030 Current policies	56	16	22	24
2030 Unconditional NDCs	55	14	20	22
2030 Conditional NDCs	52	11	17	19
2035 Current policies continued	56	20	29	31
2035 Unconditional NDCs continued	54	18	27	29
2035 Conditional NDCs continued	51	15	24	26
2050 Current policies continued	55	35	43	46
2050 Unconditional NDCs and net-zero pledges using strict criteria continued	44	24	32	36
2050 Conditional NDCs and all net-zero pledges	21	1	9	12

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Release date

November 2023

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Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2023

Special properties

Figures are median estimates.

Supplementary notes

Figures are rounded to full GtCO₂e. GHG emissions have been aggregated using IPCC AR6 global warming potentials over 100 years.

The emissions gap is defined as the difference between the estimated global GHG emissions resulting from full implementation of the latest NDCs and those under least-cost pathways aligned with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

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