Unemployment rate forecast UK 2020-2025

In 2020 the unemployment rate of the United Kingdom is forecasted to reach 4.4 percent, compared with 3.8 percent in 2019. Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.8 percent going into 2021 as the Coronavirus pandemic continues to impact the UK economy. A common indicator of an economy’s relative health, the unemployment rate has been falling in the United Kingdom since it’s 2011 peak of 8.1 percent.

UK firms continue to invest in its workforce
The unemployment rate of 4 percent predicted in this forecast certainly signals optimism in the UK employment market. If anything, the predictions might not be optimistic enough, with the unemployment rate falling to a low of just 3.8 percent in the first quarter of 2019.

Brexit and unemployment
Brexit’s potential impact on unemployment is uncertain and will likely be heavily influenced by what kind of trading relationship the UK and the European Union agree upon. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Bank of England forecasted that the Unemployment rate could peak at 7.5 percent.

Forecasted unemployment rate in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2025

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Release date

November 2020


United Kingdom

Survey time period


Supplementary notes

*Data for 2015 to 2019 is outturn

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Statistics on "The UK economy"

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