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GDP growth forecast for the UK 2020-2025

As of January 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom is expected to grow by 4.5 percent in 2021, and by a further 6.6 percent in 2022. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy is the cause of the sharp contraction in 2020.

No-deal Brexit and GDP

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, where the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without any sort of agreement then the Gross Domestic Product of the UK could decline by as much as eight percent. In this scenario, the Bank of England has also predicted that the unemployment rate could peak at 7.5 percent, and that house prices could decline by as much as 30 percent.

Recent GDP Growth shows positive signs

Although Brexit has led the United Kingdom into a political crisis, the economy appears to be weathering the storm relatively well.  The most recent data for 2020 has that the pace of economic growth is accelerating. While the employment rate for the third quarter of 2020 is higher than the previous year.

Forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2025

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Release date

January 2020


United Kingdom

Survey time period


Supplementary notes

Data for 2015 to 2020 is outturn from the ONS
Data for 2021 is from the GOV UK's latest Forecasts for the UK economy
Long-term forecasts for 2022 to 2025 from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR)

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Statistics on "Economy of the UK"

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