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Poll average on the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination

This statistic shows the latest RCP poll average on the prospects of the Democrats who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2016. As of May, 2016, about 44 percent of questioned Americans would most likely support Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016.

U.S. 2016 Elections: Democratic Party nominations - additional information

The 2016 presidential elections have effectively started in 2015, with the announcements of each party’s candidates. On the Democrat front, the battle for the nomination has been full of revelations. Former Secretary of State and former New York Senator Hillary Clinton’s bid for office, for example, has been anticipated since her 2008 defeat to current president Barack Obama and her announcement in April 2015 came as no surprise. However, she was expected to largely run unchallenged, with many voters and media channels viewing the nomination and a subsequent win as an inevitable crowning of her efforts and ambitions. But the rise in popularity of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has challenged Clinton’s sure win. In fact, while polls have consistently shown Hillary having an advantage of at least three percent in terms of voter support, she has won the Iowa caucus by a small margin of only four votes. Polls released on January 31 2016 showed her chances decreasing even further, with Sanders expected to win the New Hampshire Democratic primaries on February 9.

Other major candidates for the Democratic nomination, who had already dropped out of the race before the primaries, include former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee, Harvard Professor Lawrence Lessig and former United States Senator Jim Webb. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has also withdrawn, upon winning only eight votes on February 1.

Additional surprises in the Democratic run for the 2016 nomination did not come from politicians announcing their candidacy, but from some who didn’t, despite rumors and expectations. The two most prominent absentees were Joseph Biden, the current Vice-President and Elizabeth Warren, academic and Massachusetts Senator.

Poll average on the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, as of May, 2016

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Release date

May 2016


United States

Survey time period

April 20 to May 19, 2016

Age group

18 years and older

Supplementary notes

Miscellaneous polling institutes consist of:
NBC News/WSJ, CBS News/NY Times, IBD/TIPP, ABC News/Wash Post, CNN/ORC, USA Today/Suffolk.

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