OPEC production decline and target cuts due to COVID-19

In order to mitigate lower oil demand following the coronavirus pandemic, OPEC+ countries are aiming to reduce oil production by some 9.7 million barrels per day between May and July 2020. Initial analysis suggests that the organization is expected to exceed this figure by two million barrels, thanks in large part to cuts by producers in Iran, Libya and Venezuela, which were not included in the list of "cutters".

Forecasted OPEC+ production decline compared to target cuts due to COVID-19 between May and July 2020 (in million barrels per day)*

Characteristic	Forecasted cut	Target cut
Saudi Arabia**	-2.8	-2.5
Russia	-2.5	-2.5
Iran	-1.4	0
Rest of OPEC+ (quota countries)	-1.1	-1.8
Libya	-1	0
Venezuela	-0.8	0
United Arab Emirates	-0.7	-0.7
Iraq	-0.6	-1.1
Kuwait	-0.6	-0.6
Kazakhstan	-0.3	-0.4
Total OPEC+	-11.7	-9.7

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Release date

July 2020

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

May to July 2020

Supplementary notes

* Production decline compared to reference production set to October 2018.
** The source gives the following information: "Saudi Arabia here includes the entire volumes of Abu Sa’fah shared 50/50 with Bahrain, hence KSA’s target cuts are also adjusted for Bahrain’s share of cut accounted for by Abu Sa’fah and are higher than Russia’s cuts compared to the OPEC table."

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