Global demand for land passenger transport forecast 2050

Global demand for land passenger transport is expected to surpass 2015 levels by 2030 in all three post-pandemic recovery scenarios. The recover scenario foecasts a growth for urban and regional transport greater than the increase projected by the other two scenarios. However, decarbonization policies would lead to a stronger demand for intercity transport. By 2050, the recover scenario expects under 9,600 billion passenger-kilometers in the intercity network, compared to over 12,000 billion passenger-kilometers for both the reshape and reshape+ scenarios.

Projections for land passenger transport global demand recovery between 2015 and 2050 (in billion passenger-kilometers)

Characteristic	Urban	Regional	Intercity
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Release date

May 2021

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2015 and 2020

Supplementary notes

Three different scenarios for post-COVID-19 pandemic are presented here. The recover scenario assumes governments will prioritize economic recovery by reinforcing established economic activities. The reshape scenario assumes governments will adopt decarbonization policies after the pandemic. The reshape+ scenario includes governments taking advantage of decarbonization opportunities initially created by the pandemic, reinforcing the efforts outlined by the reshape scenario.

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