U.S. IRA emission reduction projections by sector

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is projected to spur significant economy-wide carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reductions in the United States over the coming decade. In the IRA scenario, economy-wide CO₂ emissions are projected to fall by 35 to 43 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. By comparison, reductions in the No IRA scenario range from 26 to 33 percent. Projections show greater emissions reductions for the IRA scenario compared to the No IRA scenario across all end-use sectors.

The IRA, which was signed into law on August 16, 2022, by President Biden, is the largest climate investment in U.S. history.

Projected carbon dioxide emissions reductions in the United States by 2030 and 2035, relative to 2005 levels, by IRA scenario and end-use sector (in percent)

Sector and year	IRA (Min)	IRA (Median)	IRA (Max)	No IRA (Min)	No IRA (Median)	No IRA (Max)
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-	-

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Release date

September 2023

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Region

United States

Survey time period

2023

Special properties

Figures are for median emissions reductions

Supplementary notes

Figures do not reflect rules and regulations that are currently in the process of being developed or finalized, and excludes non-CO₂ emissions or land-sink carbon removals.

CO₂ emissions from each of the end-use sectors under the IRA and No IRA scenarios represent both the “direct” emissions from fossil fuel use in each respective sector and “indirect” emissions from fossil fuels used in generating the electricity consumed by each sector.

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