Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation forecast United Kingdom (UK) 2019-2024

Inflation is an important measure of any country’s economy, and the Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the most widely used indicators in the United Kingdom. The forecasted inflation rate for this index is estimated to increase in upcoming years, from 3.2 percent in the last quarter of 2019 to 4.2 percent by 2024.

CPI forecast

Although the Retail Price Index is a commonly utilized inflation indicator, the UK also uses a newer method of calculating inflation, the Consumer Price Index. The CPI typically has a lower inflation rate than that of the RPI, which is reflected in the CPI forecast. By 2024 for example, the CPI inflation rate is expected to be two percent, compared with the RPI forecast of 4.2 percent.

Which one is correct?

The CPI is used as the official inflation statistic by the UK government in most cases, but the RPI is still used in certain instances. Increases in rail fares are calculated using the RPI for example, while increase in pension payments are calculated using CPI. The use of one inflation measure over the other can therefore have a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK.

Forecasted Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation in the United Kingdom from 4th quarter 2019 to 1st quarter 2024

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Release date

March 2019


United Kingdom

Survey time period

March 2019

Supplementary notes

*measuring house price index.

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